Budget FY27 faces structural strain, revenue risks and equity concerns: Economists

Economists and development experts have raised concerns over structural weaknesses, ambitious revenue assumptions and widening inequality risks in the proposed FY2026-27 national budget, while acknowledging some reform-oriented and sector-specific incentives.

They made the observations at a post-budget analysis event titled "Fiscal Priorities and Economic Justice: A Critical Review of the FY2026-27 Budget", organised by the Bengal Institute of Peace and Economic Development in Dhaka today (22 June). 

The keynote paper was presented by AKM Waresul Karim, dean of the Department of Economics at North South University.

Karim said the proposed budget, set at Tk9.38 lakh crore – the largest in the country's history – has been prepared amid slowing GDP growth, high inflation, rising debt and pressure in the banking sector. Development spending is allocated Tk3.16 lakh crore, while non-development expenditure accounts for 66.3% of total outlay.

He noted that revenue mobilisation remains heavily dependent on the National Board of Revenue (NBR), requiring a 43.79% growth target, which he described as a major implementation challenge. 

He, however, welcomed several measures including higher education allocation, startup funding, tax relief for electric vehicles and freelancers, and capital market reforms. 

At the same time, he warned that regressive taxation measures, high revenue targets, rising housing costs and tax whitening provisions could undermine equity and investment.

CPD Additional Director Toufiqul Islam Khan said the budget reflects gradual evolution rather than structural change, with persistent gaps between revenue targets and economic realities. 

He stressed the need to separate policy formulation from revenue administration and called for stronger investment in education and health to support long-term recovery and reduce inequality.

BDJobs CEO Fahim Mashroor highlighted the political economy dimension of fiscal planning, saying project cuts affect not only public spending but also local economic ecosystems, as political actors also operate within economic structures.

Change Initiative Executive Director Zakir Khan described the budget as "emotionally driven rather than strategically designed", noting incentives for green industries and social sectors but warning that environmental degradation and health costs are eroding development gains. 

He also urged stronger accountability mechanisms to ensure effective budget implementation.