Bangladesh economy's future path: What should be done?

Recently, Bangladesh's national budget for the fiscal year 2026-27 was presented to the Jatiya Sangsad. Following it, public discussions have focused on issues such as: where the necessary financing for the budget will come from; how much scope there is for being frugal by cutting on expenditures; and how the obstacles to implementing the proposed initiatives can be overcome.

Furthermore, more than 100 days have already passed since the current government assumed office. From a geopolitical perspective, the government faces various global economic challenges while also confronting numerous domestic economic problems. Against this backdrop, a relevant question arises: what should Bangladesh do on its journey forward?

In the post-budget period, the government must focus on three key areas. The first is the reform of revenue collection. This requires increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio as well as widening the tax net and the tax base. Bangladesh currently relies more heavily on indirect taxes than direct taxes. As a result, the tax burden falls disproportionately on ordinary citizens, and government revenues become more volatile to global economic shocks. Bangladesh should, therefore, shift toward greater reliance on direct taxation.

In addition, the efficiency in tax collection must be improved. In this regard, there was a proposal to divide the National Board of Revenue into two units, assigning tax policy to one unit and tax administration to another. This proposed reform is yet to be implemented.

The second one is the reform of the structure and the process of government expenditure. Given the significant constraints on financing public spending in the current fiscal year, the government must carefully prioritise its expenditures. Both in fulfilling the electoral manifesto of the government and in selecting development projects, decisions must be made objectively regarding which initiatives deserve priority. Projects that are necessary and that directly contribute to productive economic activity should receive precedence. Large-scale mega projects should, for the time being, be deferred. For the time being, economic realities rather than political considerations should guide future government initiatives.

Third, project implementation processes must be reformed to ensure the swift execution of budget proposals. Traditionally, government programmes and projects have faced various obstacles – some arising from legal complexities, others from excessive procedural requirements and bureaucratic layers. As a result, projects are delayed and prolonged, while also creating opportunities for corruption. Reform across every stage of implementation should therefore be a government priority.

In the post-budget period, the government must focus on three types of challenges: lingering problems, deepening problems, and emerging problems. Among Bangladesh's lingering problems are poverty and deprivation, economic slowdown, unemployment, inflation, and inadequate investment. Poverty appears to have increased recently, and around 36 million people are currently living below the extreme poverty line.

Bangladesh's economic growth rate is currently just above 3%. Both agriculture and industry are experiencing sluggish growth. According to government data, around 3 million people are currently unemployed. Inflation has remained high for an extended period and shows little sign of declining. Domestic and foreign investment have also slowed noticeably.

In the coming years, the government must focus on an inclusive, pro-poor growth strategy, centred on employment-led growth. This requires greater emphasis on the agricultural sector. Human resource development is essential for achieving higher growth, which in turn requires increased investment in education and healthcare, as well as policies oriented toward human development. 

To reduce inflation, structural reforms in market systems are necessary, alongside the creation of strategic reserves of essential commodities. In terms of investment, incentive-based economic policies alone are insufficient. Reforms are also needed in the investment environment, including infrastructure, political stability, law and order, and security.

Among the deepening problems are inequality, financial sector distress, the burden of foreign debt and subsidies, violence against women, and environmental degradation. Inequality has become a profound issue in Bangladesh, where the wealthiest 10% of the population own three-fifths of the nation's wealth, and the richest 1% control one-quarter of all wealth. Loan defaults in the banking sector amount to nearly Tk6 trillion. Thousands of crores of taka have been illicitly shipped abroad. Bangladesh's external debt currently stands at approximately $110 billion. In the last fiscal year, the government provided subsidies worth Tk109,000 crore across various sectors. Violence against women has reached a toxic level, not only curtailing women's economic empowerment but also threatening their very existence. Climate and environmental degradation are not merely environmental crises; they are also development challenges.

There is no alternative to economic democratisation if inequality and disparity are to be reduced. Inequality exists not only in outcomes but also in opportunities. Therefore, merely removing structural regulations within the economy is not sufficient; access to resources and opportunities must be ensured for poorer segments of society. In the financial sector, establishing economic discipline and a visible framework of transparency and accountability is essential. 

Addressing defaulted loans may require a combination of legal action, loan restructuring, and other coordinated measures. Regarding foreign debt, Bangladesh could engage with international financial institutions, explore debt restructuring arrangements, and also seek financing opportunities from international capital markets.

Subsidies across various sectors should be rationalised and carefully evaluated. A phased roadmap for reducing subsidies should then be developed. At the same time, efficiency and productivity must be increased in order to lessen reliance on subsidies. The state has a unique role in promoting gender equality and women's empowerment. Achieving this requires government commitment and prioritisation, effective policies and law enforcement, and partnerships with families and society. Under no circumstances should violence against women be tolerated. A sustainable development strategy that integrates economic growth with environmental protection deserves government commitment and priority. Existing effective plans should be implemented without delay.

Among the emerging challenges are wars and conflicts arising from geopolitical shifts, global political instability, and the spread of "economic nationalism." As Bangladesh is part of the global economic system, issues such as the Ukraine war, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the recent Middle East war have negatively affected its energy situation, import-export trends, overseas employment and remittances, exchange rates, and foreign exchange reserves. 

At the same time, the rise of economic nationalism means that many major powers and developed countries are adopting more inward-looking economic policies. This could create difficulties for Bangladesh in securing grants, loans, and trade preferences. Developed countries are increasingly favouring bilateral relations over multilateral arrangements with developing nations like Bangladesh, potentially depriving them of the benefits of multilateral cooperation.

To address these issues, the government must adopt forward-looking and proactive policies. For example, Bangladesh could establish strategic energy reserves, diversify energy import sources, develop alternative energy options, and improve energy efficiency. Likewise, in response to economic nationalism, Bangladesh may consider forming regional alliances with other developing countries to strengthen trade and economic cooperation.

Another emerging issue is Bangladesh's graduation from the category of Least Developed Countries to that of developing countries. Bangladesh has requested the United Nations to delay this graduation process by three years, and a decision is expected next month. 

If the request is approved, Bangladesh must strengthen its capabilities and capacities over the next three years to ensure that no obstacles remain to graduation. This requires careful preparation. It should also be remembered that, after graduation, Bangladesh will lose certain international benefits such as grants, concessional loans, and preferential tariff treatment. Therefore, preparation is also needed for the post-graduation period. Bangladesh has already developed a strategy paper for this transition. What is now required is its effective and phased implementation. In light of a possible delayed graduation, a revised and clearly defined roadmap could be prepared.

Let me conclude by saying that Bangladesh will face many obstacles in the coming years due to both global and domestic factors. These challenges are complex, but they are not insurmountable. With commitment, goodwill, integrity, and strong leadership, the government can confront them and, through collective effort, find effective solutions.

Selim Jahan is former director of Human Development Report Office and Poverty Division, UNDP