What the PM's China trip means for Bangladesh’s trade, diplomacy and regional strategy
As Prime Minister Tarique Rahman returned from his recent China visit, economists, diplomats and strategic analysts see opportunities in trade, water governance, regional connectivity and infrastructure development. However, they also caution that Bangladesh must carefully balance relations with China, India and the West while safeguarding its long-term national interests
'China ties key for Bangladesh's post-LDC trade strategy'
Dr Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Dialogue
Traditionally, China has been our largest trading partner and commercial hub, and naturally much of the discussion continues to revolve around strengthening that relationship.
At present, several MoUs have been signed in principle, although implementation will take time. The final decisions are still under discussion, but overall the developments appear encouraging from our perspective.
Once the signal mechanism is fully operational and the secondary indicators begin to align, particularly when certain thresholds are crossed, the situation will become clearer. Therefore, we believe further study and careful assessment are necessary before moving forward.
In particular, there has been renewed discussion about reviving the Chinese Special Economic and Industrial Zone initiative. Previously, the project stalled and some Chinese companies withdrew. However, efforts are now underway to restructure and reopen the initiative through alternative arrangements. This remains an important strategic objective.
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Targeting the Chinese market is highly significant for us. Expanding market access for products and strengthening trade strategy are both essential priorities. Bangladesh's geographical position also creates opportunities for triangular regional cooperation involving neighbouring countries and wider Asian markets. And it will help us after our LDC graduation as well.
Another major consideration is China's growing strength in advanced technologies, especially in renewable energy and modern industrial development. Bangladesh is keen to explore opportunities in automated industries and technology-driven manufacturing sectors in collaboration with China.
Going forward, we want to continue reviewing these opportunities carefully and determine how best to proceed through constructive dialogue and coordinated planning. Reducing communication barriers and using clearer, simpler language in discussions will also be extremely important.
Overall, it appears that these matters will continue to be the subject of extensive discussion and negotiation in the future.
Dr Mustafizur Rahman spoke to TBS' Shadique Mahbub Islam.
'Water security and regional cooperation make China engagement crucial'
M Humayun Kabir, Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States
I believe the discussions that have already taken place at the political and governmental leadership level are extremely important for Bangladesh.
One of the key reasons is Bangladesh's geographical position between both China and India. As a downstream riverine country, water management is fundamentally a matter of national survival for us. In this regard, China has already demonstrated significant expertise and success in water management, and Bangladesh could benefit greatly from that experience.
Beyond river management alone, Bangladesh also needs a comprehensive and modern approach to overall water governance. At present, our internal systems and institutional capacity are still not sufficiently developed. If we can effectively utilise China's technical knowledge, planning capacity, and long-term strategic experience, it could provide substantial long-term benefits for Bangladesh.
When water management is discussed in Bangladesh, the focus is often limited to issues such as river-sharing disputes. However, the broader issue of integrated water management is equally important. Strengthening our technical capability and administrative efficiency in this area could become a major national asset.
It is also important to recognise that most of Bangladesh's major rivers originate outside our borders. Many of these rivers flow from India, while others are connected to wider Himalayan systems involving China, Nepal, and Bhutan. Therefore, whenever we think about river and water-resource management, we must take into account the broader regional and international dimensions of the issue.
In that context, I believe China's willingness to cooperate presents an important opportunity. At the same time, because river systems and water management are closely linked with India as well, Bangladesh must approach the matter through a balanced and coordinated regional framework involving all relevant stakeholders.
If these broader strategic issues can be addressed in a coordinated and constructive manner, Bangladesh could make significant progress in ensuring long-term water security and sustainable economic development. Such cooperation could also contribute positively to regional stability and economic recovery for Bangladesh, India, and the wider region.
Another important aspect is the possibility of creating a broader regional economic framework involving China and neighbouring countries. Bangladesh's geographical location gives it a unique opportunity to become strategically connected with major Asian economic powers such as China and India.
Naturally, questions may arise regarding how India would view such initiatives. However, rather than treating the matter competitively, Bangladesh could encourage greater regional participation and cooperation. In this context, frameworks such as BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) could potentially be revived in a new form with updated strategic objectives.
At the same time, discussions regarding regional connectivity, economic partnership, and shared development have already taken place at different levels between China and regional actors. As a result, we are witnessing parallel initiatives aimed at regional economic integration and infrastructure development.
If Bangladesh can take a constructive diplomatic initiative in bringing together elements of China–India regional cooperation, it may create new opportunities for connectivity, trade, investment, and regional stability. Successfully advancing such initiatives could open a new chapter of regional cooperation in this part of Asia. We can also discuss the revival of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP) as well.
Overall, I believe this represents a major strategic opportunity for Bangladesh, and one that should be approached with careful planning, balanced diplomacy, and long-term national interest in mind.
M Humayun Kabir spoke to TBS' Shadique Mahbub Islam.
'Bangladesh must pursue independent foreign policy amid US-China rivalry'
General Fazle Elahi Akbar, Former Major General, Bangladesh Army
As the head of a sovereign and independent state, the Prime Minister has every right to make an independent decision regarding which countries to visit and which relationships to prioritise. Exercising that sovereign autonomy is entirely Bangladesh's own prerogative, and I consider it a positive development that our foreign policy decisions are being made independently, free from external pressure or obligation.
In the current geopolitical context, China has become an increasingly important global actor. At the same time, there are clear strategic tensions involving the United States, China, and neighbouring regional powers. Naturally, Bangladesh's relationship with China is closely observed by others in the region, and there are sensitivities surrounding these developments. However, Bangladesh must ultimately pursue policies that best serve its own national interests. From that perspective, the government's current approach appears both pragmatic and strategically significant.
I also look forward to seeing how these discussions are implemented in practice. According to reports, there were direct one-to-one discussions between the Bangladeshi leadership and senior Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Prime Minister. While the details of those conversations are not publicly known, such high-level engagements are often where the long-term geopolitical roadmap and strategic understanding between countries begin to take shape.
It is clear that China has a strong strategic interest in expanding its access and influence within the Bay of Bengal region. This interest is reflected in the broader framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), including infrastructure connectivity projects extending towards Chattogram and the wider region.
There are both opportunities and strategic considerations associated with these initiatives. One major advantage is the potential development of modern industrial and manufacturing hubs linked to Chinese investment and supply-chain networks. If Bangladesh engages constructively with the Belt and Road Initiative, it could help accelerate infrastructure development, industrialisation, trade connectivity, and export-oriented manufacturing growth.
At the same time, Bangladesh also has its own strategic priorities. One of the most important among them is resolving the Rohingya crisis and ensuring the safe and sustainable repatriation of displaced Rohingya people. Since China maintains considerable influence in regional diplomacy, particularly regarding Myanmar, Bangladesh may view stronger engagement with China as an opportunity to seek greater diplomatic support on this issue. In that sense, the relationship involves a broader framework of mutual strategic interests.
The geopolitical environment, however, remains highly complex. The United States and other global actors also maintain important strategic interests in the region, and Bangladesh must therefore navigate these competing dynamics carefully. Any major strategic alignment or economic initiative will inevitably be viewed through a broader geopolitical lens.
China may also be observing whether Bangladesh is prepared to deepen long-term strategic cooperation in a meaningful way. Future cooperation between the two countries will likely depend on the level of mutual trust, policy consistency, and strategic alignment that develops over time.
Historically, relations between Bangladesh and China have gone through periods of both cooperation and sensitivity. Therefore, high-level meetings and renewed diplomatic engagement could help rebuild confidence and open a new phase of constructive partnership.
Overall, Bangladesh is currently operating within a highly sensitive geopolitical environment. The decisions taken at this stage will have long-term implications for the country's foreign policy orientation, regional diplomacy, economic development, and strategic positioning. From that perspective, many observers remain cautiously optimistic that Bangladesh is attempting to pursue a balanced and nationally focused approach.
General Fazle Elahi Akbar spoke to TBS' Shadique Mahbub Islam.
'Bangladesh should join the China-proposed corridor in its national interest'
Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, President, Bangladesh Chamber of Industries
Countries around the world are making strategic economic decisions, and Bangladesh must do the same. Since the Trump administration returned to power in the United States, many of the institutions that underpin the global trading system have become less effective. In that context, it is important for Bangladesh to strengthen its relationship with China and elevate it to a strategic level.
China has the potential to become Bangladesh's principal partner in economic development, industrialisation, renewable energy, electric vehicles and investment. As Chinese companies relocate parts of their manufacturing abroad, Bangladesh needs to position itself as a destination for those investments. Chinese entrepreneurs are also interested in investing in Bangladesh, and the country should seize this opportunity. From that perspective, I believe the prime minister's visit will play an important role.
Bangladesh previously considered awarding the Teesta River management project to China, but did not proceed. It also explored handing over the Chinese Economic Zone in Anwara, Chattogram, to China, but no agreement was ultimately reached. Bangladesh needs to clarify its policy direction. Investment will not come through rhetoric alone.
The proposed China–Myanmar–Bangladesh Economic Corridor could bring significant benefits to Bangladesh. The country should participate in every regional connectivity initiative that serves its interests. In reality, Bangladesh has only a limited number of such opportunities. Besides this Chinese proposal, there is also the prospect of strengthening connectivity with India, Nepal and Bhutan. Bangladesh should make full use of all these opportunities.
Our priority must be Bangladesh's national interest. Every country pursues its own interests, and Bangladesh should do the same. We should not hesitate to protect our own interests simply because others may be affected. India, for example, has pursued its own interests by regulating the flow of Teesta water and through the Farakka Barrage. That is how states normally behave, and we should view it realistically.
At the same time, Bangladesh has extensive trade relations with India and remains dependent on India for many essential commodities. On the other hand, maintaining strong relations with China is equally important for attracting investment and creating employment. Bangladesh should therefore preserve constructive relations with both countries.
Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez spoke to TBS's Abul Kashem.
'Bangladesh must maintain balanced ties with major powers'
Parvez Karim Abbasi, Executive Director, Centre for Governance Studies
Bangladesh's national interest lies in maintaining balanced relations with the United States, China and India. Our largest export market is the US, while China is our biggest source of imports and investment potential, and India remains our second-largest import partner and an essential supplier of key commodities. Our economy is closely linked to all three.
India, however, needs to recognise Bangladesh's new political reality. The country is now governed by a democratically elected government with an effective opposition, meaning public opinion cannot be ignored in shaping foreign policy. Anti-Bangladesh rhetoric used in Indian domestic politics, delays over the Teesta water-sharing agreement, border killings and unresolved bilateral issues have all contributed to declining public trust in India. Rebuilding confidence will require visible goodwill and concrete progress on these longstanding concerns.
At the same time, Bangladesh should not overlook opportunities offered by China. Beijing has adapted quickly to Bangladesh's changing political landscape by engaging not only with the government but also with major political parties. China is interested in expanding both economic and strategic cooperation, including through initiatives such as the proposed "2+2 Dialogue" between the two countries' foreign and defence ministers. The memorandum of understanding signed between the BNP and the Communist Party of China also reflects China's broader strategy of building long-term political relationships.
The international environment remains highly fluid. If relations between Washington and New Delhi strengthen further, Bangladesh's growing engagement with China could receive greater scrutiny. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in East Asia are expected to intensify in the coming years.
Bangladesh must remain cautious. Chinese investment will not come automatically; the country must improve transparency, reduce corruption and create a more attractive investment climate. Above all, Bangladesh should avoid zero-sum diplomacy. As a small state, its priority should be economic recovery, job creation, technological advancement and maintaining constructive relations with all major powers.
Parvez Karim Abbasi spoke on a TBS talk show.
