Voters in Germany fire a warning shot over Europe

The political earthquake that was waiting to happen in Germany, has happened. The right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has scored its biggest victory in a state election, polling 44% of the votes in Saxony-Anhalt. 

One can call it a "coming of age" for the party which was founded only 13 years ago, on a nationalist and populist political agenda, challenging Germany's post-1945 consensus. For over a decade, the AfD has rattled nerves right across Europe with its emphasis on German identity and rejection of immigration and globalism. 

The AfD's publicly-stated scepticism of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has worried Germany's allies about the direction the country may take if the rapidly-rising party ever won a national election. The Ukraine war has deepened those worries, as the AfD has taken a stand against continued support for Kiev.  

Given Germany's flirtation with right-wing ultra-nationalism in the not-too-distant past, and how it spawned a racist monster that devoured the whole of Europe, one could understand the ripple of unease the AfD sent through German society. 

Some units of the party, such as the one in Saxony-Anhalt, have been classified as "confirmed far-right extremists" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency. 

But the voters, particularly in states which were part of the former communist East Germany, chose to ignore the warnings. Tired of economic stagnation, powerless to change policies imposed by the European Union and angry at the influx of immigrants from developing countries, they turned to the AfD as a form of protest. 

Within four years, the AfD won 94 seats in the federal parliament, the Bundestag. Eight years later, the party had 152 seats. But they never had enough seats to take power in one of the 16 state governments. Until now, that is. 

The firewall

The election does not mean, however, that their path to power in the state is guaranteed. Despite the huge win, the AfD fell just three seats short of outright majority in the state legislature. The other six parties that have gained the required minimum 5% votes to win seats, have an opportunity to deny the AfD the right to form the government. 

These parties have for long pursued a policy called the "Firewall", by which they refuse to cooperate with the AfD. It remains to be seen whether the other parties maintain the "Firewall" even in the face of such a clear mandate for the AfD. 

Although the result affects the government in just one of Germany's 16 states, its repercussions will be felt across Germany and beyond.  

The AfD's win is being seen as a major blow to the authority of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has led Saxony-Anhalt's state government since 2021, saw their vote share halved; by contrast, the AfD's vote share more than doubled. 

This unprecedented victory for a party which has often been labelled "neo-Nazi" could have an impact on who leads the government in the capital, Berlin. The AfD's co-leader and leader of the opposition in the Bundestag, Alice Weidel has even told reporters that Merz could be replaced as Chancellor before Christmas.  

Immigration the key

What worries Germany's mainstream parties most is the AfD's anti-establishment stance, which threatens to derail the country's decades-old consensus on liberal policies. The AfD's anti-immigration policy, which includes the promise of mass deportations and closure of Germany's borders to most new migrants, has led some to brand them a "racist party". 

"The AfD is planning a radical restructuring of society: it has declared war on public broadcasting, wants to cut funding for democracy projects, intends to establish a kind of vigilante group against migrants," state-funded media Deutsche Welle's Hans Pfeifer wrote on Monday. 

This sounded more like a Trumpian vision of a conservative backlash against decades of liberalism. The "war" on public broadcasting would presumably include severe cuts to Deutsche Welle, just as US President Trump took a sledgehammer to the Voice of America, and cut federal funding for other public broadcasters such as NPR.  

Cuts in funding for "democracy projects" would mirror the Trump administration's action to shut down the US Agency for International Development or USAID. Mass deportations and tighter border controls have been the hallmark of Trump's second term.  

Centre-right parties such as the CDU may be committed to uphold liberal ideals. But the rise of the AfD is causing them to amend their policies to almost mirror those of the far-right. In such a lurch further to the right, the CDU is reported to be preparing tougher citizenship rules. 

"The proposals include ending dual citizenship, stricter German-language requirements, full financial independence and stronger requirements to reject anti-semitism," reported the Daily Telegraph of London on Monday. The reference to anti-semitism may well be aimed at potential migrants from Middle Eastern or Muslim countries. 

Worries over Ukraine war

Other, nominally-liberal European countries facing right-wing backlash such as the UK and Denmark, have also in the recent past enacted tougher immigration laws. But commentators have pointed out the inherent danger in policies that try to mimic the far-right. 

"All the hapless and visionless Centre can do with the far-right is emulate the far-right and eventually become the far-right. Not just in Germany, everywhere," Latvia-based former BBC journalist Leonid Ragozin posted on X, in reaction to reports of changes in German laws.

Voters, particularly in states which were part of the former communist East Germany, chose to ignore the warnings. Tired of economic stagnation, powerless to change policies imposed by the European Union and angry at the influx of immigrants from developing countries, they turned to the AfD as a form of protest.

What worries Germany's European and NATO allies most is the AfD's policy towards Russia in general, and the Ukraine war in particular. Germany has been one of the biggest suppliers of money and arms to Ukraine during this long war. 

In recent days, Chancellor Merz has committed Germany to help Ukraine build long-range drones capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia. But the AfD aims to end all that.

The AfD has stated it will halt all financial and military aid to Ukraine and re-establish relations with Moscow, including import of Russian gas which was halted in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. 

The loss of cheap Russian gas supplies has hit the German economy hard. German gross domestic product, which rebounded in 2021 to 3.9% growth after the Covid shock, went into negatives following the gas cut-off. It had zero growth last year. A sluggish economy meant a rise in unemployment, which crept up to 6.4% in 2026.  

Battleground Brussels

The AfD's agenda does not only bring them into confrontation with the established German parties, it also creates a huge headache for the European Union, headquartered in Brussels. 

The AfD has taken an unmistakably hostile attitude towards what they see as an attempt to construct a supra-national European state. They call for the abolition of the Euro, as well as German exit from the EU. 

Even AfD's rivals acknowledge that the Saxony-Anhalt vote could have an element of backlash against the EU. 

"A significant part of the anger that caused the voters to vote for the AfD come from European decisions. The European Union should ask what we did to contribute to this anger and what do we have to change," a CDU member of Bundestag, Gunter Krings, told the Euro News channel. 

It is most unlikely the EU will engage in such soul-searching. Its leaders in Brussels will no doubt count on the mainstream parties to continue to operate the "Firewall" and deny the AfD a shot at power even at the local, state level. 

The AfD is currently leading in the national opinion polls with nearly 28%, while the ruling CDU is well behind at 21%. But that is nowhere near enough to deliver power for the AfD in Berlin. The next elections are four years away and a lot can change in the meantime. 

For the time being, forming the government in Saxony-Anhalt will represent a huge success for right-wing populism and deliver a loud warning shot for the rest of Europe. For that to happen, the famed Firewall would need to be breached. The left-wing BSW party, which looks to have gained five seats in the state legislature, detests the AfD's nationalistic ideology but they do see eye to eye on Ukraine. 

The writer is a journalist and podcaster. Email: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. X handle: @Sabir59