Manpower exports slump to pre-Covid levels amid Mideast war, Saudi curbs

Bangladesh's overseas manpower exports have fallen sharply over the past four months which industry insiders attribute to heightened tensions in the Middle East and stricter Saudi documentation requirements, raising concerns that slower labour migration could eventually undermine remittance inflows.

Although expatriates sent home a robust $3.42 billion in May – a 15.34% year-on-year increase – government data tells a worrying story.

According to the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET), monthly overseas employment clearances have remained between 44,000 and 65,000 since February, a steep decline from the post-pandemic average of around 1 lakh workers per month and a return to pre-Covid migration levels.

Infographics: TBS

Experts warned that the slowdown could put significant pressure on the government's target of sending 14 lakh workers abroad next fiscal year and jeopardise its election pledge to facilitate overseas employment for 1 crore workers over the next five years.

Before Covid-19, Bangladesh typically sent between 60,000 and 70,000 workers abroad each month. Although 60,119 workers received overseas employment clearance in May, representing a 23% increase from April, the figure was still about 43% lower year-on-year.

Industry insiders said prolonged weakness in overseas recruitment would make it increasingly difficult to sustain the country's labour export momentum. They urged the government to intensify diplomatic efforts to reopen key labour markets, including Malaysia, Oman, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, for low-skilled workers.

As Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is expected to make his first overseas visit to Malaysia soon, recruiters expressed renewed optimism that the Malaysian labour market could reopen to Bangladeshi workers, helping revive migration trends.

State Minister for Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Nurul Haque Nur told parliament on 8 June that the government aims to send around 14 lakh workers abroad next fiscal year, up from 9,33,815 in FY26. He said efforts are continuing to expand overseas employment opportunities by increasing the deployment of skilled and professional workers.

Bangladesh sent more than 45.7 lakh workers overseas between 2022 and 2025, averaging more than 95,000 workers each month.

Saudi restrictions, conflict weigh on recruitment

Industry insiders attributed the recent decline primarily to two factors.

They said regional conflict following the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran on 28 February has made it more difficult for Bangladeshi workers to obtain new visas in several destination countries, slowing recruitment and delaying approvals.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh's largest overseas labour market, has tightened visa issuance following allegations that some workers entered the kingdom using visas backed by fraudulent job demand letters and later failed to secure the promised employment.

Tipu Sultan, a former joint secretary general of the Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies, said his agency had experienced a sharp fall in new Saudi visas.

"The number of fresh Saudi visas has fallen drastically in recent months. In June, we received only two or three new Saudi visas. In May, the number was around six or seven, while it was about 10 to 12 in the preceding month," he told The Business Standard.

Following the Saudi restrictions, Bangladesh's expatriates' welfare and overseas employment ministry has begun requiring embassy-attested job demand letters issued by destination countries.

Tipu said Bangladeshi recruitment agencies are now subject to documentation requirements that competing labour-sending countries do not face.

"Recruitment agencies are now being asked to submit Bangladesh embassy-authenticated demand letters from employers. While countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka are not subject to the same level of documentation, Bangladeshi agencies have to go through extra bureaucratic procedures, which slow down the recruitment process," he added.

War-related uncertainty persists

Recruiters said the conflict in the Middle East has led to the cancellation of more than 1,000 flights, making foreign employers more cautious and reducing fresh recruitment orders and visa requests.

They said continuing uncertainty has contributed to a sharp decline in overseas departures.

BMET data show that 65,634 workers received overseas employment clearance in February 2026, followed by 44,658 in March, 48,859 in April and 60,119 in May.

Saudi Arabia remained the leading destination in May with 30,509 workers, followed by Qatar with 8,901 and Singapore with 5,683.

Although Saudi Arabia continues to dominate Bangladesh's overseas labour market, recruitment volumes remain well below the levels recorded during the post-pandemic surge.

Recruiting agencies warned that unless visa processing improves and employer confidence returns in major labour-importing countries, overseas employment is likely to remain around pre-pandemic levels, potentially affecting remittance growth and the broader labour export sector.

Officials and industry representatives said they are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East as geopolitical uncertainty and stricter compliance requirements reshape migration patterns.

Looking beyond traditional markets

Mohammad Jalal Uddin Sikdar, a migration expert and faculty member at North South University, said Bangladesh must diversify beyond its traditional Gulf labour markets.

He said China's Belt and Road Initiative is generating major infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa and Europe, where labour shortages are emerging because of low population growth. Similar demand is also increasing in Russia, Central Asia and parts of Africa, particularly in the energy sector.

To capitalise on these opportunities, he stressed the need to develop a skilled workforce, provide language-based training and strengthen migration diplomacy.

Remittance outlook

Bangladesh received $3.42 billion in remittances in May 2026, up from $2.97 billion in the same month a year earlier and higher than the $3.13 billion received in April, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

During the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, remittance inflows reached $32.76 billion, compared with $27.51 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Experts cautioned that if manpower exports remain subdued for an extended period, remittance inflows could eventually come under pressure despite their current resilience.