Can Pakistan-administered Kashmir elections calm tensions?

The first phase of local elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir is scheduled for Monday, 27 July, amid calls for a boycott from the recently outlawed Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a grassroots alliance of civil society groups.

The JAAC has been demanding the abolition of 12 seats in the regional assembly reserved for people displaced from India-administered Kashmir and living in Pakistan. The group argues that only residents of Pakistan-administered Kashmir should be eligible to contest regional elections.

The dispute escalated after the Supreme Court of Pakistan-administered Kashmir ruled that the refugee seats are constitutionally protected and cannot be abolished without a constitutional amendment.

The regional government outlawed the JAAC in June under anti-terrorism laws, citing threats to public order, and detained dozens of its supporters.

The ban came amid rising tensions over the refugee seats and ahead of violent protests sparked by the group's campaign to scrap them.

The unrest has left around 30 people dead since June, according to local estimates cited by Reuters news agency.

India and Pakistan both claim Kashmir in its entirety, but each country only controls a section of the territory, making the Muslim-majority region a longstanding flash point between the nuclear-armed neighbors since their independence from Britain in 1947.

Protests cast shadow over vote

Since early June, Pakistan-administered Kashmir — known locally as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) — has witnessed weeks of protests and sit-ins. While the dispute over the refugee seats has become a major issue, JAAC has also campaigned for broader economic and governance reforms. 

Following the unrest, authorities split polling into three phases, with voting in Mirpur set for 27 July and elections in the protest-hit Poonch division postponed until 10 August.

Voting in the regional capital, Muzaffarabad, has been delayed until 2 August over security concerns. The JAAC continues to stage a sit-in in Rawalakot, near the Line of Control with India.

Demand for fair representation

A major question is whether the elections can restore public confidence or merely offer a temporary pause in public anger.

"We are just asking for fair representation, which is our right," Ali Raza, a 22-year-old student protester in Rawalakot, told DW. "The local people who live here should have the right to choose their representatives, not the refugees who settled here from India."

"The election is a major opportunity for the people of AJK to choose their representatives," said Shazia Marri, the central information secretary of the Pakistan People's Party, which currently rules the region. "The people want their rights protected, their issues addressed and a government that delivers on its promises."

However, JAAC leaders argue that elections alone cannot resolve the issues that brought thousands of people onto the streets.

"Our movement is not replacing one government with another over time; we need our rights, but there are just political slogans in the campaigns," one JAAC official told DW under condition of anonymity.

Imran Khan, a geopolitical expert and former director of the US Institute of Peace Pakistan, expects the movement to continue post-elections.

"While elections in AJK are important on their own merit and for the continuity of the political process, they will not address the political grievances and demands of the people who are supporting JAAC," Khan, no relation to Pakistan's former prime minister, told DW. "The protest is outside the assembly. They no longer trust those institutions fully."

Has JAAC changed Kashmir's political landscape?

Analysts have said the JAAC protests marked a significant shift in Pakistan-administered Kashmir's politics by bringing together citizens across party lines around economic and governance issues rather than traditional political rivalries.

For Khan, JAAC is a dominant political force in quite significant parts of Pakistan-administered Kashmir. 

"They have more street credibility than mainstream politicians and parties despite the allegations of foreign backing and funding. For now, they have disrupted the status quo politics in AJK," Khan said, noting that the Pakistani establishment has the means and methods to break up such political movements.

Experts caution that rebuilding trust will require more than campaign promises.

"[The] next government in AJK will be very weak, as it will be sandwiched between pressure from both the Pakistani establishment that controls AJK through administrative and security framework and the sentiment on the street, which is very pro JAAC," argued Khan. The next government would have "little credibility and limited room to govern unless it reaches an understanding with JAAC to ease political tensions."

But Marri of the Pakistan People's Party believes trust is rebuilt by listening to people's concerns, delivering practical solutions and empowering elected institutions. 

Will protests return if reforms stall?

If key grievances remain unresolved, analysts warn that another wave of protests cannot be ruled out.

"It is too early to say that more waves of protests will be seen, but JAAC has the potential to become a lasting political force," said Khan, who suggested the group risks being weakened by internal divisions and pressure from the establishment.

"For now, both sides are treading carefully, with JAAC relying on mass support and the establishment avoiding a full crackdown while buying time," Khan added.

While the vote will determine who governs Pakistan-administered Kashmir, it is unlikely to resolve the broader constitutional dispute over Kashmir or eliminate long-standing frustrations with the region's governance.

"Governments must listen to public concerns and address them through dialogue and effective governance. Stability comes from listening to people, respecting the law, and delivering results," Marri added.

For Raza, the Gen Z protester, "the world has changed, and we have seen governments toppling through student protests in the neighboring countries; we won't stop, and protests will continue until our rights have been given to us."

Haroon Janjua is a journalist based in Islamabad, focusing on Pakistani politics and society.

Disclaimer: This opinion first appeared on DW, and is published by special syndication arrangement.