At 250, the US is at a crossroads at home and abroad

In the searing heatwave and under a blaze of fireworks at night, the United States celebrated its 250th anniversary on 4 July. But despite the celebrations and flag-waving, there are reasons to believe the landmark event has come at a time when the US is questioning its identity at home and its place in the world. 

The home-front showed the foundational principles of the US are still robust, and the bulwarks against any "authoritarian slide" are firmly in place. But the global scenario is sending a different message. It is telling the world that America may be losing its way and its grip. 

The country had already received a birthday gift days earlier from the Supreme Court. On 20 June, the nine justices of the Court issued a landmark ruling, albeit by a narrow majority, reaffirming the citizenship rights of children born on US soil. 

This was a major rebuff to President Donald Trump, who had sought to cancel citizenship rights of children born to temporary visitors and undocumented migrant parents. Trump clearly had the backing of his right-wing base, and banked on the support of the Supreme Court where conservatives enjoy a majority among the justices. 

The Court based their judgement on the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, ratified on 9 July 1868, which guaranteed the rights of children born in the US to citizenship. 

The judgement reaffirmed citizenship as a birthright, not dependent on the parent's citizenship or immigration status. It rejected arguments that citizenship should depend on the parents' lawful status in the US, because the Constitution, through the 14th Amendment, does not speak of any such requirement. 

Hail the King

What the Supreme Court justices, three of whom were appointed by Trump himself, have demonstrated, is where the real centre of power lies in the US. 

The US was born out of rebellion against a monarchy in 1776; for 250 years its politicians and people have abhorred the idea of monarchy. But the justices just demonstrated that there is, indeed, a King in the US. 

The Constitution is the King. 

Politicians can add to it or reshape it through a rigorous process in US Congress and support of three-fourths of States' legislatures. But they cannot defy it, ignore it, rule in violation of it. No piece of legislation, no executive order issued by the President can stand, if it is deemed to be in violation of the Constitution.  

The Supreme Court had recently declared Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs on imports from countries around the world to be illegal. This was the flagship economic policy of Donald Trump's second term in office. 

Along with the birthright order, two of Trump's most important economic and social policies now lie in tatters, because the Supreme Court justices went with the Constitution, rather than their personal political leanings. 

The reaffirmation of the supremacy of the Constitution is the Court's Fourth of July gift to America. It has come just when liberals and independents, even many Republicans were beginning to worry about "democratic backsliding" and authoritarian tendencies under Trump. 

The US Constitution remains a bulwark against authoritarianism, but even on its 250th anniversary, America is reminded that rights enshrined in that document are not taken for granted.

Civil rights activists are having to take to the streets with the slogan "No King" to warn against attempts to usher in unchecked, unrestrained executive power. Activists campaigning against deportation of undocumented migrants are killed in the street by masked immigration enforcers. 

What President Trump's attempt to curtail the 14th Amendment has shown, is that the  250th anniversary has come at a time when the US is in the throes of significant social and political change. 

There is an unmistakable mood against illegal migration which propelled Trump to victory two years ago. The US is embroiled in a culture war with itself, with "identity" at the centre of it. 

Empire's enduring presence

Such a landmark anniversary would normally be celebrated as a reaffirmation of a great power's standing in the world; an empire's enduring presence across the global landscape. But for the US, this is a time of doubts amid talk of "imperial decline".

Empires do not fall overnight, but there often is a clear event which signals the limits of its reach. 

For the French empire, the defeat at Dien Bien Phu in Vietnam in 1954 was such a watershed moment. The French defeat brought the US to south-east Asia. 

What the Supreme Court justices have demonstrated is where the real centre of power lies in the US. The US was born out of rebellion against a monarchy in 1776; for 250 years its politicians and people have abhorred the idea of monarchy. But the justices just demonstrated that there is, indeed, a King in the US. The Constitution is the King.

For the British Empire, the retreat from Suez Canal in 1956 under American pressure signalled the beginning of the rapid end of London's dominating role in world trade and finance. 

The US has enjoyed global domination for over eight decades, and seen off challenges to its power from the Soviet Union. Through its military presence, its economic dominance, its message of democracy and freedom, the allure of its pop culture etc, the US has not only been the preferred partner or ally for many nations; it has also been the magnet which attracts migrants from all over the world. 

The 250th anniversary celebrations, however, are happening under a cloud. The cloud is the joint US-Israeli war on Iran. 

President Donald Trump, in alliance with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, chose to go to war with the Islamic Republic, hoping to wrap up a quick victory with a surgical decapitating strike on the country's political and military leadership on February 28. 

'Strategic defeat' at 250?

At the beginning of the war, all the talk was about regime change in Tehran, the people of Iran rising to seize power. There was talk of finishing off Iran's nuclear programme once and for all; destruction of its missile stockpile and production capacity. 

More than four months after the first missiles hit Tehran, killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the US and Iran are talking through intermediaries, trying to give practical shape to a Memorandum of Understanding they signed on 17 June. 

The MoU talks about return of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks; it talks about waiving sanctions on Iran's oil sales; it talks about Iran allowing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz; it talks about raising $300 billion for Iran's reconstruction.  

In other words, the US has failed to achieve any of the goals Trump and Netanyahu had set themselves while launching their war. Analysts across the world are calling the outcome a "strategic defeat" for the US. 

There is already talk about whether the Iran war is Trump's Suez: a tactical success, but a strategic disaster. Such talks are likely to be heard in the capitals of the small Arab countries in the Persian Gulf which had banked on US protection, such as UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, perhaps even Saudi Arabia. 

American bases in those countries were not able to defend themselves against Iranian retaliation, let alone their hosts. The US was not able to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz once the Iranians moved to seize control of the waterway. 

There is every likelihood that the war will fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Gulf region, elevating Iran's posture and increasing pressure on Arab capitals to cooperate with rather than confront Tehran. 

This is the "strategic defeat" the US will be pondering while it celebrates 250 years of independent statehood. 

Multipolar future?

But this is unlikely to, on its own, lead to decline of US power around the world. 

For one thing, the US remains the single superpower, the most powerful military in the history of mankind, with enormous political leverage in most capitals of the world. Its hold on the global economy will remain intact as long as the US dollar remains the world's reserve currency.  

China's continued growth, especially in space and cutting-edge technology such as AI, could alter the strategic landscape in the years ahead. The  threat to US domination, however, is taking shape in a different way, thanks to America's own policies. 

Europe appears to be drifting away from its strategic alliance with Washington. This loosening of ties has been pushed by the US itself, through its pressure for greater European responsibility in NATO. 

Russia and China are forging a stronger alliance, as both are subject to sanctions and restrictions by the West. Countries in the global south are looking for an alternative to the dollar-dominated economy through the BRICS process, in part to escape the threat of US sanctions and asset freezes. 

Instead of another centre of power rising to challenge the US, there is greater likelihood of a diffusion of power centres, with the emergence of a genuinely multi-polar world. It is likely to be messy, but on the 250th anniversary of the US, that seems to be the cloud hanging over America's continued global power. 

The writer is a journalist and podcaster. He can be contacted at: sabir.mustafa@gmail.com. X handle: @Sabir59. Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/54r5kvak.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.