Trump in Beijing: Future of US-China relations swings between co-op and confrontation

For days, security around Beijing's Tiananmen Square has remained tightened. Rumours of a military parade and choreographed state spectacle circulated across Chinese social media. By the time US President Donald Trump arrived in China this week, the stage had already been prepared.

The symbolism matters. Trump's visit, the first state visit by a US president to China in nearly a decade, comes at a moment when the global order appears unusually fragile. Wars are reshaping alliances, trade routes are under pressure, artificial intelligence is emerging as a new strategic battleground, and Taiwan remains perhaps the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia.

Chinese President Xi Jinping greeted Trump with the kind of ceremonial diplomacy Beijing reserves for moments it considers historically consequential: a state banquet, high-level talks and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, where Chinese emperors once prayed for prosperity and stability.

But beneath the pageantry lies a harder reality. This summit is not simply about diplomacy. It is about leverage, power and the future balance between the world's two most influential nations. The central question hanging over Beijing is whether the Trump-Xi meeting will open the door to long-term co-operation, or merely delay a deeper confrontation.

Iran and the politics of leverage

For much of this year, US-China relations had slipped down Trump's list of priorities. Washington's focus remained fixed on the war involving Iran, instability in the Middle East, domestic political battles and military pressures elsewhere. But Beijing has now become impossible to ignore.

At stake are the future of global trade, the stability of Taiwan, access to advanced semiconductors, control over artificial intelligence and even the security of global shipping routes.

And unlike previous summits, Trump arrived in Beijing politically weakened.

His administration has struggled to contain the economic consequences of the conflict involving Iran and the disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices have strained global markets, while supply chain disruptions have begun to ripple across industries. The war has become what one analysis described as a "gnawing distraction" for Trump, whose popularity has suffered amid mounting geopolitical pressures.

China, meanwhile, senses opportunity.

Although Beijing has also been hurt by the crisis, Xi enters the summit appearing comparatively stable. China's economy remains under pressure from slower growth and unemployment concerns, but Beijing also sees the current instability as proof of America's declining ability to manage global order.

Graphics: TBS

Before leaving Washington, Trump told reporters he would have a "long talk" with Xi about Iran. Publicly, however, he attempted to downplay Beijing's influence, saying the US did not "need any help with Iran".

Privately, Washington appears to recognise otherwise.

China has emerged as an important intermediary in the conflict. Together with Pakistan, China has attempted to position itself as a mediator, presenting a five-point proposal in March aimed at securing a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Behind closed doors, Chinese officials have reportedly been encouraging Tehran towards negotiations.

The visit to Beijing last week by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was widely interpreted as a deliberate signal of China's influence in the Middle East.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly acknowledged Beijing's role. "I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told," Rubio said to journalists. "And that is that what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this."

Washington has also tried persuading Beijing not to block a new United Nations Security Council resolution condemning attacks on ships transiting Hormuz after China and Russia vetoed an earlier proposal.

Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, believes the White House understands the geopolitical reality. "I think if we're going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role," he said in an interview with BBC.

China's motivations, however, are hardly altruistic.

Nearly half of China's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing fears that prolonged instability could trigger a wider global recession that would further damage its export-dependent economy. Chinese manufacturers are already feeling the pressure. Higher oil prices have increased production costs for petrochemical-based goods, from plastics to textiles, with some producers reportedly seeing costs rise by 20%.

Beijing is also unlikely to help Washington without demanding concessions in return.

Taiwan, the most dangerous fault line

That leverage may centre on Taiwan.

Few issues are more sensitive in US-China relations than the self-governed island claimed by China as part of its territory. Trump's administration angered China last December by approving an $11bn arms package for Taiwan, the largest such sale in history.

But Trump's own rhetoric has often appeared inconsistent.

"He considers it to be a part of China," Trump said of Xi's position on Taiwan. "And that's up to him, what he's going to be doing."

He has also criticised Taiwan for not adequately compensating the US for security guarantees, saying the island "doesn't give us anything". Last year, Trump imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwan and accused it of stealing semiconductor manufacturing from the US.

China now appears eager to exploit that ambiguity.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently urged Washington to make the "right choices" on Taiwan during a phone call with Rubio. At the same time, China has dramatically increased military pressure around the island, regularly sending warplanes and naval vessels into surrounding areas.

Beijing may attempt to push Washington into changing the carefully calibrated wording underpinning decades of US policy. Currently, the US position states it does not support Taiwan independence. China would prefer language explicitly stating that Washington opposes Taiwan independence.

Whether Trump would entertain such changes remains uncertain.

John Delury, senior fellow at the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society, doubts Beijing will place too much trust in Trump's rhetoric. "Even if Trump says something kind of left field that looks like some capitulation on Taiwan, because he's not so careful with his use of language, the Chinese know better than to put much stock in that, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later," he told BBC.

Former US State Department and Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby warned that even small wording changes carry enormous consequences. "They just have to be so extraordinarily precise when you're talking about Taiwan because, quite frankly, the stakes are enormously high," he told The Guardian.

Trade tensions

Trade remains the backbone of the relationship, and one of its biggest vulnerabilities.

Throughout 2025, Washington and Beijing appeared dangerously close to a renewed trade war. Trump repeatedly imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, at times pushing rates above 100% and later above 140%. 

Beijing retaliated by restricting exports of rare earth minerals and reducing purchases of American agricultural products, directly targeting politically important US farming states.

I think if we're going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role.

Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations, International Crisis Group

The tension has eased somewhat since Trump and Xi last met face-to-face in South Korea last October. A February Supreme Court ruling limiting presidential tariff powers also curbed some of Trump's more unpredictable trade policies.

Still, the underlying disputes remain unresolved.

Trump is expected to press China to increase purchases of American agricultural products and energy exports. Beijing, in turn, wants the US to ease restrictions on semiconductor exports and reduce barriers to Chinese investment.

The economic stakes are enormous. China now serves as the leading trade partner for more than 120 countries, making stability between Washington and Beijing essential for the wider global economy.

Michael O'Hanlan of the Brookings Institution believes Washington faces a difficult balancing act. "It could be tough for the US to give up investigations of all unfair Chinese trade practices given how widespread and distorting the latter still are," he told BBC.

At the same time, Trump has arrived in Beijing accompanied by some of America's most powerful corporate figures. According to Reuters, executives from companies including Nvidia, Apple, ExxonMobil and Boeing are part of the delegation. Business leaders are eager to prevent a deeper economic rupture between the two powers.

Ryan Hass, Director of the John L Thornton China Centre at Brookings, argues that personal diplomacy may ultimately matter as much as policy outcomes. "So long as the visit proceeds smoothly and Trump concludes he was treated respectfully, then the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure," he told BBC. "If, on the other hand, Trump leaves feeling disrespected or trifled with, then he could have a change of heart," he added.

AI is the new Cold War

Beyond trade and Taiwan, the visit is also unfolding against the backdrop of an accelerating technological rivalry.

Artificial intelligence has become one of the defining strategic competitions between Washington and Beijing. China is investing heavily in AI systems, robotics and what Xi calls "new productive forces" designed to drive the country's next stage of economic development.

But Washington increasingly views China's technological rise through the lens of national security.

The White House has accused Chinese firms of operating "industrial scale" theft of American AI models and intellectual property, allegations Beijing denies. Restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports have become a central feature of US policy despite objections from American manufacturers.

Yingyi Ma from the Brookings Institution believes the confrontation is entering a dangerous new phase. "An opening chapter of an AI cold war is emerging," she told BBC. "The deeper contest is not over who copies whose model, but over the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI."

Yet China also possesses strategic leverage of its own.

Beijing processes roughly 90% of the world's rare earth minerals, materials essential for technologies ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind farms and jet engines. During the recent trade tensions, China demonstrated its willingness to weaponise that dominance by restricting exports.

That has led some analysts to speculate about a potential grand bargain: Chinese access to advanced chips in exchange for stable rare earth supplies to the US.

Even the fentanyl crisis has entered the diplomatic equation.

According to Politico, Trump intends to press Xi over Chinese companies accused of supplying chemical precursors to Mexican cartels producing fentanyl. Washington has long accused Beijing of failing to adequately control these supply chains. China, meanwhile, wants removal from the US State Department's list of "major drug transit or illicit drug producing countries".

The real takeaway

The sheer breadth of issues on the agenda reflects how deeply intertwined and simultaneously distrustful the two superpowers have become.

On the surface, both governments will project stability, co-operation and mutual respect during the carefully choreographed Beijing summit. Both leaders understand that open hostility between the world's two largest economies would carry catastrophic global consequences.

But beneath the diplomatic rituals lies a harder truth: neither side fully trusts the other, and both are attempting to convert moments of weakness into strategic advantage.

For Xi, the summit is an opportunity to present China as a calm, indispensable global power capable of stabilising crises that Washington struggles to control. For Trump, it is a chance to demonstrate that he can still manage America's most consequential geopolitical relationship despite mounting international turbulence.

There may be few major agreements by the end of the visit. The summit itself is brief, packed into only two days of meetings and ceremonies. But its significance extends far beyond immediate outcomes.

Because what is unfolding in Beijing is not merely another diplomatic encounter. It is a negotiation over the shape of the emerging world order, one where co-operation and confrontation increasingly exist side by side.

And whether this uneasy balance holds may determine the future trajectory of global politics, economics and security for years to come.