Exports rebound in April after 8 months, full recovery still uncertain

Bangladesh's merchandise exports showed signs of a strong turnaround in April, snapping eight months of subdued performance with a sharp 32.92% year-on-year growth.

According to data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) today (3 May), the recovery was driven largely by a rebound in garment shipments and improving buyer confidence following the national elections.

Infograph: TBS

Export earnings rose to $4.01 billion in April, up from $3.02 billion in the same month last year. On a month-on-month basis, shipments also increased by 15.20% from $3.48 billion in March.

The April performance marks one of the strongest monthly gains in recent times, suggesting that export orders – particularly in key markets – are beginning to recover after a prolonged slowdown.

However, the broader picture remains mixed.

In the first 10 months of the current fiscal year (July-April), total export earnings stood at $39.40 billion, down 2.02% from $40.21 billion in the same period a year earlier. This indicates that while recent gains are significant, they have yet to fully offset earlier declines.

Exporters attributed the surge to a combination of a low base effect from last April and renewed buyer confidence following the elections.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), attributed the increase to two primary drivers.

"First, last year's Eid-ul-Fitr fell on 31 March, with holidays extending through 6 April, which significantly curtailed exports during that period. Compared to that low base, this year's full month of uninterrupted operations naturally resulted in much higher figures," he told TBS.

He further noted that many international buyers had taken a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the national elections in February. "Following a credible election, buyer confidence has stabilised, positively impacting April's earnings," Mahmud said.

According to the BGMEA president, while the data shows a massive spike, organic export growth for April sat closer to 8-10%. He cautioned that May is unlikely to replicate this performance due to the upcoming Eid-ul-Azha holidays but expressed optimism for a rebound in June, provided geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside.

Garment sector drives recovery

The ready-made garment (RMG) sector, the backbone of the country's export economy, once again led the recovery.

RMG exports rose 31.21% year-on-year to $31.72 billion during the July-April period, accounting for the bulk of export earnings. In April alone, garment shipments climbed to $3.14 billion from $2.39 billion a year earlier, reflecting a strong pickup in orders.

Despite this robust performance, the sector's cumulative earnings remain slightly below the previous year's $32.64 billion.

Fazle Shamim Ehsan, senior vice-president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), also attributed the surge to a post-election boost in buyer confidence and seasonal demand. 

He noted that lower order volumes in previous months had depleted buyer inventories, while April and May are traditionally peak periods for winter garment shipments, both of which fuelled the April boost.

However, Ehsan cautioned that growth in May could be dampened by Eid-ul-Azha holidays, and that a slowdown in new orders may affect momentum from June onward, depending largely on geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

However, BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said the recent spike largely reflects deferred shipments from March rather than a surge in fresh orders. 

He explained that March exports dipped because factories closed for 10 days during Eid-ul-Fitr, causing production backlogs that were finally cleared in April.

"To our knowledge, factories have not seen unusually high additional orders or a sudden influx of new buyers," Hatem said. 

He warned that exports could face renewed pressure later this month as another holiday period threatens to disrupt production schedules again. "To understand the true export trend, we must wait until July. While temporary increases may persist through June due to shipment adjustments, the actual picture will only become clear then."

Uneven recovery beyond garments

Beyond garments, however, the export earnings remain uneven.

Non-RMG sectors, including primary commodities and several manufacturing segments, have yet to show a comparable recovery, dragging down overall export growth. EPB data suggests that while some categories posted modest gains in April, their contribution remains limited and volatile.

Market-wise, the recovery appears broad-based.

Exports to major destinations such as the United States and the United Kingdom recorded strong year-on-year growth, while all of Bangladesh's top 20 export markets posted positive gains in April. This indicates a gradual normalisation of demand across key regions after months of contraction.

Still, a trade economist cautions against reading too much into a single month's performance.

"The April numbers are encouraging, but the key question is whether this momentum can be sustained," said Dr Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of RAPID, a private think tank. "Sustaining this pace of growth will be challenging."

Razzaque, also a trade economist, noted that the strong April performance may partly reflect a low base effect, as export earnings in April last year were relatively weak.