US to tell partners they must pick sides in AI race with China

Highlights:

• Draft of US letter to AI coalition members warns against joining competing initiatives
• Letter to be sent to 35 signatories of AI Opportunity Statement for cooperation on AI models, chips and critical minerals
• Recipients to include Kazakhstan, only known member of both US and Chinese coalitions and a source of critical minerals
• AI race between US, China at pivotal point as Chinese open-weight models gain against OpenAI, Anthropic

The US is preparing to tell dozens of countries they must pick sides in the artificial intelligence race with China, warning they will be excluded from a US-led AI coalition if they also sign up for Beijing's competing framework, according to a US official and an internal draft reviewed by Reuters.

Washington last year launched the Pax Silica initiative aimed at securing supply chains for AI models, semiconductors and critical minerals, amid a fierce technology rivalry with Beijing.

About two dozen countries have joined, including Kazakhstan, a key potential source of critical minerals that has also joined China's coalition, as well as close US allies such as Japan, Australia and South Korea.

The draft letter, prepared by the State Department, is addressed to the 35 signatories of a US "AI Opportunity Statement" signed in June, which includes members of the non-binding Pax Silica framework and other countries that have expressed a desire to align cooperation on AI with Washington.

By pressing countries to choose sides the US hopes to starve China of resources in a race to make the most sophisticated AI, which could be used for military or economic dominance.

In July, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched a rival "World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization", promoting his country's open-weight technology as a challenge to US influence over the fast-moving sector.

Kazakhstan is the only country so far known to have joined both initiatives, setting off alarm bells in Washington.

"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing. Signature of the Pax Silica Declaration is not merely a membership subscription, but a commitment," the letter says, urging countries to "choose deliberately" on AI.

"It cannot be held alongside membership in duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with our own," the letter said, without specifically mentioning China.

Reuters could not determine when the US intends to send the letter or whether it might be amended before sending. The draft was undated.

The State Department told Reuters it would not comment on "purportedly leaked internal documents."

The Chinese and Kazakh embassies in Washington did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

Can't have it both ways

The Pax Silica agreement aims to push US allies and partners towards joint projects and export controls, and ultimately reduce reliance on adversaries for critical minerals, AI models and the semiconductor chips that power them.

The race between the US and China for technological leadership has reached a pivotal moment, as Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary systems from US companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.

The exponential growth of the technology's capabilities, including the ability to hack autonomously, has forced a global reckoning over its power.

Beijing is weighing restrictions on overseas access to some of China's leading AI models, highlighting the growing tension with its stringent national security agenda.

The US touted Kazakhstan in June as the first country in Central Asia to join Pax Silica, bringing significant reserves of critical minerals that fuel advanced technologies.

China has used its current near-monopolies over critical minerals as a retaliatory weapon in a tariff war launched last year by US President Donald Trump, who has ramped up US efforts to source the minerals domestically and from allies.

Members of Pax Silica have access to shared investment opportunities in AI-related projects while those who sign the AI Opportunity Statement have symbolically agreed on a "common purpose" and "shared vision" with the US, according to the statement posted on the State Department's website.

US officials drafted the letter to make clear that "you can't have it both ways," the US official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity given ongoing internal discussions on the issue.

"It's difficult to see how a country can credibly position themselves as trusted partners in one technology ecosystem while simultaneously signing up for an initiative designed by China to advance a competing vision for AI," the official said.