Do current seat trends mean Cong majority in Karnataka is sealed?

The Congress appears to be leading the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Indian Karnataka assembly elections as of 11.25am, according to statistics published by the Election Commission of India (ECI).

The Congress is leading in 118 assembly constituencies (ACs) while the BJP is leading in 73. The third main party, the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S), is leading in 25 ACs. The halfway mark in the Karnataka assembly is 113.

Do these seat tallies mean that the Congress's majority in Karnataka assembly is sealed?

An HT analysis of ECI numbers suggests that the Congress will emerge as the biggest party, though it is still not clear whether the party will cross the majority mark. Here's why.

AC-wise results compiled by HT show that over a third (39%) of the votes have been counted so far, though results have not been declared for any seat. This means there is still some room for ACs to swing from one party to another. However, such trends rarely reverse so sharply with so many votes already counted.

To be sure, ACs where parties are leading with a large margin (more than 10%) are less likely to swing than ACs where the margin is small (2%). It is highly unlikely that the trends will change in the constituencies where the margin is 5% or more.

Currently, there are 28 ACs where the margin is less than 2% of total votes in the AC, 36 ACs where the margin is 2%-5%, 43 ACs where the margin is 5%-10%, and 117 ACs where the margin is more than 10%. The ACs, where the margin is less than 2%, are the most likely to swing to another party and the ACs where the margin is more than 10% are the least likely to swing.

What are the margins for different parties right now? The Congress is leading with a very small margin (less than 2% of total votes) in 10 ACs and with a small margin (2%-5%) in 15. In 19 ACs, the Congress margin is a significant 5%-10% and it has a large margin of more than 10% in 74 ACs.

The BJP is leading with less than 2% margin and 2%-5% margin in 8 and 15 ACs. It has a 5%-10% margin in 18 ACs and more than 10% margin in 32 ACs.

The JD(S) is leading with less than 2% margin in 4 ACs, with a 2%-5% margin in 8 ACs, with a 5%--10% margin in 5 ACs, and with more than 10% margin in 8 ACs.

The data analysis implies that the final results may not be dramatically different from the present trends.

In Karnataka, the Congress has already started celebrating the results with senior party leaders, including former chief minister Siddaramaiah claiming victory. All senior party leaders are likely to assemble at the state party office this afternoon.

The BJP on the other hand, has been guarded in its response, saying it will wait for more votes to be counted. However, state party leaders, including chief minister Basavaraj Bommai have met with senior leaders to analyse the trends so far.