Trump wants to leave the Iran war behind. That won't happen soon
More than three weeks after the signing of a “memorandum of understanding” to begin a truce between the US and Iran, the flare-up has highlighted the difficulties Trump faces in forging a comprehensive peace deal and a face-saving exit from the war.
US President Donald Trump's struggle to extricate himself from the unpopular Iran war has hit a new roadblock with the latest exchange of attacks between the two sides, leaving him with few good options and a faltering ceasefire.
Trump declared that an interim agreement to end the conflict was "over" and ordered fresh strikes on Wednesday after Iran targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait following the US bombing of Iranian targets in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
More than three weeks after the signing of a "memorandum of understanding" to begin a truce between the US and Iran, the flare-up has highlighted the difficulties Trump faces in forging a comprehensive peace deal and a face-saving exit from the war.
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His choices are limited and mostly bad, analysts say.
Any heavy escalation beyond tit-for-tat strikes could risk a return to full-fledged war, even though Trump insisted on Wednesday (8 July) that the latest events would end "very quickly" as global oil prices spiked around 7%.
However, backing down in the face of Iranian defiance could add to Tehran's sense that it can assert leverage over the world's most important oil-shipping channel, anytime it sees fit.
Trump may be hoping he can bomb Iran back to the negotiating table for talks about the fate of its nuclear program, which he set as his main war objective, but most experts see little sign that Tehran will make the kind of deep concessions he is seeking.
"Trump has put himself in a box," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations. "Whether through military or diplomatic means, he doesn't look likely to gain much from Iran."
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE
Trump's pursuit of an exit plan has come as he faces pressure to permanently end a war that has killed thousands, inflicted economic pain at home and driven down his approval ratings just months ahead of November's US midterm elections.
A 23 June Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump's approval rating falling to 34%, returning to the lowest level of his second term and dimming his Republican Party's chances of retaining control of Congress.
The latest attacks, which overshadowed a NATO summit that Trump attended this week in Turkey, dented hopes of turning the memorandum signed on June 17 into a final peace deal to end the war, which began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28.
Most analysts are skeptical the two sides can craft a comprehensive settlement within the 60-day negotiating window laid out in the document. It kicked the hardest issues down the road to on-again-off-again discussions that have made little if any progress, and the next round of talks remains uncertain.
Iran, which has suffered heavy damage to its economy and military capabilities, also faces mounting pressure after Washington revoked a waiver allowing Tehran to sell oil internationally, undoing one of its biggest gains under the interim agreement.
Even so, its hardline rulers appear willing to withstand further blows and some analysts suggested this week's strikes by both sides may have been aimed at staking out positions for future negotiations.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Middle East, said this pattern was likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
"The situation is not going to revert to full-scale war," said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington. "But the default setting is now managed instability - recurring violence with no permanent off-ramp."
Trump, who campaigned for a second term on promises to avoid foreign interventions and focus on Americans' economic concerns, has framed the interim agreement as a resounding US victory - even as Iran has made similar claims.
Still, most analysts agree that Trump, who once demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," has been stymied on many of his often-shifting goals for the war.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
At the root of the latest outbreak of hostilities are differing interpretations of what the preliminary deal means for control of the strait, where Iran showed its ability during the war to choke off one-fifth of the world's oil shipments.
Iran sees itself having a future role in managing the waterway, possibly even charging fees or tolls, while Trump and US Gulf allies insist on a return to free and safe passage.
"The Iranians have judged that Trump doesn't want to get sucked into an open-ended war, and the Gulf is desperate for normalcy," said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. "Their bet is that Trump will fight for a few days and the Gulf Arab states will push for him to stop."
The looming US midterms, and concerns that high gasoline prices driven by the war could turn voters against his Republican Party, are also widely seen as a pressure point for Trump.
"Haunted by former US President Hoover's failed economic stewardship, Trump knows he needs to focus on the economy," said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University, referring to Trump's assertion that by continuing the war he would risk becoming like the president who governed at the start of the Great Depression.
