Russia cuts natural gas output, export forecasts
Russia cuts 2026 gas output, export forecasts amid Europe shift.
Highlights:
- Russia downgrades gas outlook as Europe prepares to stop purchases
- Russia has also revised down its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low
Russia's economy ministry expects the country to produce and export less natural gas this year than previously forecast, according to a draft government document seen by Reuters, as Europe prepares to wind up its final Russian gas purchases.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Russia had also downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised the fuel export outlook for this year and next due to the war with Ukraine.
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The forecasts will be used to update the federal budget to 2029.
Natural gas production and export forecasts have been revised down against the background of ruptured economic and political ties with the West over the Ukraine war and the European Union's plans to stop all purchases of Russian gas from next year.
According to the draft forecast, natural gas production in Russia this year will amount to 683.1 billion cubic metres, 5.3 bcm below that expected in a May projection, but still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
The Kremlin said this month that Europe was hurting itself by buying expensive gas on the spot market instead of opting for cheaper Russian supplies. Moscow maintains it is ready to restart gas supplies to Europe, including via the Nord Stream undersea pipelines, one leg of which remains intact after the blasts in September 2022.
Exports of seaborne liquefied natural gas from Russia are seen rising to 35 million tons this year from 30.3 million tons in 2025, but that is still 5.3 million tons lower than previously expected.
LNG exports are seen continuing to rise in coming years, but at a slower pace than previously forecast, the document showed.
Russia's gas exports to Europe tumbled 44% last year to just 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, according to Reuters calculations.
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at around 180 bcm per year in 2018-2019.
