Middle East conflict could push 23.4m more children into poverty: Unicef

Up to 23.4 million more children could fall into monetary poverty by year-end as the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions continue to harm children, according to a UNICEF analysis released today (16 July).

The report, The Impact of the War in the Middle East on Children in Monetarily Poor Households, analyses data from more than 167 countries and warns that rising food and energy prices, coupled with wider economic disruptions linked to the conflict, are eroding household purchasing power and disproportionately affecting children in the poorest families.

Unicef Executive Director Catherine Russell said children were paying the price for the escalating conflict, including those living far beyond the region.

"The longer this continues, the worse the consequences will be. Rapidly rising costs are making food and education unaffordable for many families. For children already living in poverty, these shocks deepen deprivation and can cause harm that lasts a lifetime," she said.

The analysis outlines two possible scenarios. Under the adverse scenario, a moderate economic shock could push an additional 18.3 million children into monetary poverty. Under the severe scenario, prolonged disruptions to prices and economic activity could leave 23.4 million more children living in poverty by the end of the year.

According to Unicef, child poverty is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, with rising food and energy costs and limited fiscal capacity in many countries reducing families' ability to meet basic needs.

Asia and Africa are expected to account for around 80% of the projected increase in child monetary poverty because of their high baseline poverty rates and greater vulnerability to external shocks.

The report highlights the impact in several countries. In Somalia, fuel prices in Mogadishu more than doubled within days of the conflict's escalation, driving up the cost of food, water, transport, and humanitarian assistance.

In Ethiopia, disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have increased diesel prices by 31%, while humanitarian fuel costs have risen by 50-70%, making it more difficult to deliver aid.

In Nigeria, where low-income households spend between 60% and 70% of their income on food and transport, even modest price increases are significantly reducing purchasing power.

In Bangladesh, Unicef said rising prices of staple foods, including rice, lentils, cooking oil, vegetables, fish, and poultry, are placing increasing pressure on households. It estimates that an additional 1.2 million people in the country could fall into poverty.

The report warns that the economic fallout from the conflict risks reversing years of global development progress, limiting children's access to food, healthcare, education and protection services essential for their physical and cognitive development.

Unicef urged governments, donors and international financial institutions to safeguard funding for essential services, expand child-sensitive social protection programmes, ensure affordable access to basic services, increase fiscal space for social spending and strengthen child-focused preparedness systems to cushion the impact of future economic shocks.

"This crisis is putting the lives and futures of children at risk. If the world fails to act swiftly, the combined effects of conflict, economic instability and rising costs will push millions of children into deeper poverty," Russell said. "We could see hard-earned development gains unravel."