Macquarie Group warns of ‘$200 oil’ if the US-Iran war drags on till June

Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.

A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts, including Vikas Dwivedi, said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%. An alternative outlook, with a probability of 60%, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month, they said.

Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March, as the war between the US, Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict has seen Tehran oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting flows of energy vital to the global economy.

"If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy a historically large amount of global oil demand," the analysts said in a report today (27 March). "The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities."

Brent was last near $108 a barrel today, after touching a crisis-high of $119.50 earlier this month. The benchmark set a nominal peak of $147.50 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Yesterday (26 March), US President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline for striking Iran's energy sites by 10 days, with the second pause to that threat stretching the timeline on potential attacks to 6 April. Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to sail through the strait as a goodwill gesture, he said.

The closure of the strait "has sent both crude and refined-product prices soaring due to the magnitude of the disruption," the analysts said. In pre-conflict times, the waterway saw daily transits of about 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of refined products, they said.