Who wins when the world burns?

On 28 February, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran marked the beginning of a wider regional war, the first figures that emerged were not strategic. They were human.

Within days, the death toll began to climb. Iran's envoy to the United Nations said more than 1,300 civilians had been killed in the early phase of the war, as reported by Reuters. In one of the earliest attacks, a strike on a school in Minab killed over 170 people, most of them children, according to international media reports. Weeks later, the numbers continued to rise, with thousands injured, entire neighbourhoods damaged, and families displaced.

The pattern is not new.

From the War in Afghanistan to the Iraq War, and now the Gaza war and the growing US-Israel war on Iran, war has repeatedly produced the same first outcome. Loss measured in lives.

Research by the Costs of War Project, first published in 2011 and updated regularly through 2023, estimates that post-9/11 conflicts have caused more than 940,000 deaths, including over 432,000 civilians. These figures extend beyond direct combat and include deaths linked to airstrikes, collapsing health systems, and long-term instability.

But the cost of war is not only human.

The same research places total US spending on these wars at around $8 trillion, when long-term obligations such as veterans' care and interest payments are included. That scale of spending reshapes economies, often in ways that are not immediately visible.

A significant portion of that money has flowed into private hands. Studies show that between one-third and one-half of Pentagon spending since 2001 has gone to defence contractors, with companies such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies among the largest recipients. In Afghanistan alone, at least $108 billion was spent on wartime contracting, much of it concentrated among a small group of firms.

Even within that system, efficiency has been uneven. A bipartisan US commission found that at least $30 billion was lost to waste, fraud and abuse during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, highlighting gaps in oversight.

The current war involving Iran is already reflecting similar dynamics.

In its first week, US military operations cost more than $12 billion, according to estimates cited by The Guardian. At the same time, the conflict has disrupted global energy flows, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged sharply since the escalation, with analysts pointing to wider effects on inflation and fuel costs worldwide.

For many countries, the war is not distant. It is felt through rising prices, economic uncertainty, and supply disruptions.

Yet these figures, trillions spent, billions contracted, markets shifting, exist alongside another set of numbers that rarely intersect with them.

The number of people displaced.

The number of homes destroyed.

The number of lives that do not return to normal.

In Gaza, entire neighbourhoods have been flattened. In Iran and Israel, civilians continue to live under the threat of escalation. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the consequences of war remain visible years after the fighting has formally ended.

The gap between these realities is difficult to ignore.

On one side are the visible costs, lives lost, cities damaged, futures disrupted. On the other are the quieter flows of money, power and strategic advantage that move beyond the battlefield.

This imbalance is not new. Even the Iran–Contra affair revealed how decisions tied to conflict could unfold far from public scrutiny. In the mid-1980s, officials in the administration of Ronald Reagan secretly facilitated arms sales to Iran despite an official embargo. They diverted the proceeds to fund Contra rebels in Nicaragua, bypassing US Congress. Investigations later showed that those involved justified the operation as necessary for strategic goals, even as it violated domestic law. The episode exposed how geopolitical priorities, covert funding, and military interests could intersect away from public accountability.

Today, the scale is larger and the consequences more far-reaching. But the underlying pattern remains.

Wars continue to be fought in the name of national interest. Yet the costs are borne widely, while the benefits, economic, political and strategic, tend to concentrate.

And in the end, the question is not only who wins.

It is whether anything gained can ever outweigh what is lost.