How BJP plotted its Bengal victory

It is said that Indian Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah believes that a serious politician must always think at least ten years in advance.

Two years ahead of the 2021 assembly elections in West Bengal, on an evening sometime in 2019, Shah was having dinner with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, at the latter's official residence at 5 Kalidas Marg in Lucknow. Also with them was the then Lucknow bureau chief of PTI, Subhasish Mitra.

A colleague of mine for nearly four decades in journalism, Mitra narrated an interesting anecdote. At the informal dinner table conversation, Shah was asked about BJP's prospects in the 2021 assembly elections in Bengal. He ruled out the BJP winning. Instead, he laid out a three-step roadmap for BJP in Bengal: first, we have to increase our vote share, then seat share and finally capture power in 2026.

In 2021, the BJP got 77 seats and 38.4%. A more than 7% rise in vote percentage share five years down the line, 45.84% to be precise, saw the party securing 207 seats to sweep to power in the state for the first time. But the statistics hide the bigger story of the planning that went into pushing up BJP's electoral graph in a state where the party has always been considered as an "outsider."

BJP, helped by its ideological mentor RSS, went about toning up the party's ground-level network in Bengal to counter, if not match, TMC's organisational spread, with the focus on properly tapping into the rising anger against the ruling party on the issues of migration of labourers and white collar job seekers outside Bengal, industrial decline, widespread corruption, safety concerns and identity politics.

The strategy was to ensure all these issues converged to create a political environment in which change was not just desirable but inevitable.

Concerns over governance and a desire for change combined to produce a decisive swing. BJP's aim was a complete reset across regions, communities and classes, from its traditional stronghold North Bengal to industrial belts of Howrah and urban clusters around Kolkata. Bengal and its Bhadralok voted not just for pivot but for a total change.

At the heart of the 2026 electoral mandate was a strongly embedded anti-incumbency sentiment triggered by 15 years of TMC rule under Mamata Banerjee, fuelled by frustration across rural and urban Bengal over corruption at all levels.

Economic backwardness was a key pillar of the BJP's unprecedented performance in the election in Bengal's long narrative of de-industrialisation, which reached a tipping point in the public perception. Migration of labourers and educated youth in search of jobs in more prosperous states became a powerful symbol of TMC's governance failure.

What began in 2011 as Mamata's agitation against the Left Front on the issue of land acquisition had by 2026, come full circle. Over the last decade or so, the Mamata dispensation became increasingly synonymous with words like "cut money", "syndicate control" and "tolabazi" in the absence of governance failures.

Corruption under TMC rule was a lived experience for people ranging from petty shop owners and vegetable vendors to rich businesses. From construction projects to small household repairs and local extortion syndicates were perceived to control economic activities. At the grassroots level, governance was outsourced to local intermediaries, considered the foot soldiers of TMC, rather than directed by the state.

Scams played a crucial role in hardening anti-incumbency as the Bengal chit fund scam involving senior TMC leaders in Saradha to Narada cases and recruitment of teaching and non-teaching staff in government schools.

The cancellation of over 25,000 teaching and non-teaching appointments by the Supreme Court transformed corruption from opposition rhetoric to a personal crisis for thousands of middle-class families.

I had the personal experience of visiting parts of the Bengal hinterland and the suburbs of Kolkata. Where on a narrow lane called Kalitala Road near Kalikapur locality in south Kolkata, a lady who runs a small shop selling bread, egg,biscuits and other items of daily use, said she had been paying Rs 4,000 every month as "cut money" to local TMC leaders.

Her husband, who sells fish in a nearby shop of the size of five feet by three feet paid Rs 6,000 per month. I spoke to several shop owners in the area and the story was the same.

The lady shop owner, who has a school-going daughter, said, "When the monthly earning of our shops is about Rs 35,000, shelling out Rs 10,000 caused us so much of hardship. There were nights, I wept but was helpless. But I knew my tears would not go in vain," her words oozed as much anger as pain.  

The second important factor that helped the BJP was the women voters, whose turnout was more than that of men. The Modi government's attempt to push through a legislation in parliament for reservation for women in legislatures was defeated by a united opposition last month, but it paid rich dividends electorally for the BJP in Bengal.

BJP insiders said the narrative around opposition parties being anti-women found "a lot of resonance" on the ground in West Bengal. The rape and murder of a trainee doctor at R G Kar Medical College in Kolkata in 2024 and atrocities on women in TMC stronghold Sandeshkhali not only sparked a nationwide outrage but became a turning point in the public perception.

The RG Kar incident and its fallouts filled the social media posts, especially among women voters who had long been a key part of TMC's electoral constituency. The general perception that the government's response lacked urgency or empathy deepened the damage.

Mamata's welfare schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar and Kanyashree had once secured unwavering support in favour of Mamata but by 2026, that backing lost much of its sheen as aspirational women voters began to weigh safety, employment, and long- term prospects alongside financial assistance.

I met a woman from Basanti in South 24 Parganas who said the doles ensured her family's survival but her children needed jobs and incomes for a better standard of living.  Families spoke openly about aspirational children leaving the state for work in other regions, including those governed by BJP.

BJP sensed this and responded with a promise of doubling the existing cash handout, and at the same time prefacing with it the issues of women's safety and dignity. The promise of industrial revival and employment creation gave BJP a potent development plank.

Identity politics played a big role in paving the way for Hindutva politics to creep into Bengal. The consolidation of Hindu votes, cutting across caste and linguistic lines, provided BJP with a stable electoral base.

Allegations of minority appeasement by TMC created a fertile ground for Hindu consolidation. BJP signalled a position seeking to strike a balance, enforce rule of law and address concerns around infiltration and demographic change.

TMC's narrative of Bengali subnationalism which had effectively countered BJP in 2021 elections, lost some tof its resonance in the face of economic and governance-deficit concerns among the aspirational classes. Steps like stipends for priests and imams or increased support for cultural events like Durga Puja were designed to deflect from failure on the development front.

In Bengal, BJP has always had to face the politically-contrived tag of an "outsider" which it had hurt the party in the 2021 assembly poll. In 2026, BJP localized its appeal by consistently invoking Bengali culture from references to Maa Kali to Bankin Chandra Chattopadhyay and use of local idioms and symbols.

BJP leaders engaged with everyday cultural life, whether through fish, jhalmuri or festivals, to signal familiarity with Bengal's socio-cultural landscape.

What also made a vital difference in this year's election was that while BJP set the campaign narratives on a variety of issues, TMC was busy reacting to it and failed to set its own.

So when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah repeatedly called for 'poriborton' during the campaign, it resonated with voters already inclined towards change.