From hallucinating AI chatbots to wiping out humanity: How did we get here?

The heads of leading US AI labs came together in a rare show of unity over the weekend to slow the technology's development, warning it could soon improve on its own and slip beyond human control.

The remarks, from fierce business rivals such as Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk, show how quickly AI has advanced, from the hallucination-prone ChatGPT of 2022 toward what many see as a critical milestone: recursive self-improvement.

WHAT IS ​RECURSIVE SELF-IMPROVEMENT?

Central to the field is the idea that an AI system could become capable of improving itself, with little to no help from humans, and allowing each advance to help produce the next one.

This has appealed to ‌researchers as it offers the prospect of rapid breakthroughs in fields ranging from medicine to engineering.

WHY THE URGENCY NOW?

The CEO warnings follow reports of swarms of AI agents — systems designed to pursue goals and take actions on a user's behalf — that colluded to breach websites and AI repositories.

The concern now is that AI could become capable of improving itself before researchers have developed reliable methods to align, monitor and control these increasingly powerful systems.

Warnings about AI's risks are not new. But they took on added urgency this month after researchers in leading AI labs attached both a timeline and a probability to those concerns.

Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon warned AI ​could kill us all by the end of the decade. Evan Hubinger, Anthropic's alignment science lead, echoed Coxon's warning, saying there was a more than 10% chance of such an event within the next decade.

Behind these warnings is a growing belief that RSI ​is finally within reach, with some AI executives putting it three to five years away.

In an essay published over the weekend, Amodei warned that recursive self-improvement could eventually outrun humanity's ability to understand and control ⁠AI systems if pursued without sufficient safeguards.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

For decades, AI remained too limited for the idea of RSI to be taken seriously. Early systems could play chess, recognise images or answer questions, but they lacked the ability to meaningfully contribute to their own ​development.

That began to change with the rise of large language models. Slowly, AI became better at solving complex problems. The launch of ChatGPT in 2022 accelerated that shift, kicking off an investment boom that has poured more than $1 trillion into chips, data centers and other infrastructure.

The result ​is a generation of AI systems that can now write software, perform autonomous tasks and assist in AI research itself.

HOW COULD WE GO FROM NON-ALIGNMENT TO HUMAN EXTINCTION?

One of the best-known examples is philosopher Nick Bostrom's "paperclip maximizer," where a machine told only to make paperclips pursues that goal so relentlessly it converts all matter, humans included, into paperclips.

The analogy suggests that almost any goal pushes a sufficiently capable system to acquire resources, resist shutdown, and prevent its objective from being altered, not from malice, but because a switched-off system cannot finish its task. No plan yet exists to rule that out.

Some researchers worry that if a powerful AI ​system were able to improve itself and become more capable than its human operators, it could eventually evade oversight, conceal its intentions or manipulate people into granting it greater access to critical infrastructure. By the time humans realized the system's goals were misaligned, they might no ​longer be able to stop it.

"The precise scenario sounds a little bit like science fiction," said Coxon, who quit Anthropic this month over safety concerns. "But I think it is frighteningly real."

HAS AI SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF HARM?

There have been no major instances of AI intentionally harming humans, but models in development ‌at OpenAI and ⁠other labs have in recent months escaped testing environments, broken rules and hacked websites.

In one high-profile case, rogue OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face, seizing control of servers at the open-source platform and trying to cover their tracks. OpenAI didn't notice until well after the threat.

IS AI ALREADY CAPABLE OF IMPROVING ITSELF?

Not fully, but there are signs AI is increasingly helping to build better AI.

One of the biggest shifts since ChatGPT has been the rise of AI agents that can generate code and build apps autonomously.

Anthropic said this year that Claude Code, its coding tool, produces most of the code used in many internal projects, and that engineers are shipping eight times as much code per quarter as they did from 2021 to 2025.

New AI models are increasingly doing more of their reasoning internally, making it harder for researchers to monitor how they think.

OpenAI unveiled in September ​a new model called Astra, which it said was its best yet ​but cautioned that it also sometimes attempts to evade human ⁠monitoring.

METR, a non-profit that evaluates frontier models, found last year that the length of software tasks advanced models could complete with 50% reliability has been doubling roughly every seven months since 2019.

In June, Anthropic said that pace had quickened to every four months.

SO WHY ARE AI COMPANIES NOT SLOWING DOWN ALREADY?

Many researchers describe the situation as a classic prisoner's dilemma. Even companies that believe the risks are real face intense ​pressure from competitors. Any firm that slows development risks falling behind rivals in a technological race that has become one of the world's most important.

The stakes are compounded by the fact that both ​OpenAI and Anthropic are pursuing initial public ⁠offerings that could value them at trillions of dollars, valuations that depend on the promise of the next model.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has also rejected calls to slow down, wary that any pause would only hand China room to close the gap in a technology it views as central to national and economic security.

WHAT WOULD A SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPMENT MEAN?

Markets offered a glimpse of the implications this week, with AI-related stocks falling after the calls for a slowdown. Chipmakers, cloud providers and data center operators have built their growth around it, and any slowdown threatens revenue tied to how ⁠fast labs need ​new hardware.

Some analysts, however, believe that even without new training requirements, inference demand and existing backlog could drive growth at Nvidia and its peers.

WHY ARE SOME PEOPLE SKEPTICAL?

In ​a Princeton-led study, leading AI agents were able to carry out engineering tasks but struggled to identify worthwhile scientific ideas.

Some Silicon Valley executives and critics also question the motives behind the warnings, suggesting they both stoke interest in the technology and build a case for regulations that would raise costs for rivals just as open-source models close ​the gap with leading systems.

David Sacks, who served as the White House's AI and crypto czar, has said top labs could be pursuing "regulatory capture," pushing rules that saddle smaller competitors with costly compliance burdens and weaken competition.