What Australia, NZ, Pakistan, and Afghanistan need to do to make World Cup semis

With India and South Africa already making the cut for the semifinals at the ongoing men's ODI World Cup, the race for the remaining two berths has intensified. Australia have almost closed in on the third berth, while Pakistan, New Zealand, and Afghanistan are in a tussle for the final berth.

If we look at the points table, Australia have gathered 10 points from seven matches and are placed third. They are followed by New Zealand and Pakistan, both of them squared at 8 points, but due to a superior NRR, the Black Caps are placed one spot higher than Babar Azam and his unit.

Afghanistan, who were predicted as dark horse before the start of the tournament, also have eight points but have played a match less. So when they lock horns with Australia at Wankhede on Tuesday, the minnows will have a fair chance to jump to the fourth position and draw level with Australia.

Here is how the qualifications scenarios look for the Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan:

Australia
Played: 7, Pts: 10, NRR: 0.924
Remaining matches: vs Afg, Ban
Australia have an easy chance as compared to others to finish both third and seal a semifinal berth. If they manage to beat Afghanistan in the following encounter, the Aussies will qualify for the semis and also finish third after the league stages.

Australia's path won't be affected even if they lose to Afghanistan but it will surely dent New Zealand and Pakistan's hopes. For any major damage Australia will have to lose both their remaining matches, which are against comparatively easier opponents. But if this is the case the net run-rate will come in the picture.

Meanwhile, if Pakistan and New Zealand lose their final league matches, Australia will progress into the final four. If we look at Australia's NRR (0.924), it's way superior than the other three in contention.

New Zealand
Played: 8, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.398
Remaining match: vs SL
After starting the World Cup with dominant wins, New Zealand have endured four losses on the trot and are in danger of an elimination. Even if they manage to beat Sri Lanka in their next match, they can still miss out on a semifinal berth. For that to happen, Afghanistan will need to win all their remaining matches, and Australia beat Bangladesh.

The best scenario for New Zealand is that they beat Sri Lanka and Afghanistan lose their remaining two matches and England beat Pakistan. This will take New Zealand to 10 points and pave their way to the finals.

If both New Zealand and Pakistan win their respective final league fixture, and Afghanistan win one of the two matches, all three will be tied at 10 points, bringing the NRR into play. New Zealand have the most superior NRR among the three.

However, weather could also come to sting New Zealand as rain is predicted throughout the week in Bengaluru. If the tie washes out, New Zealand will only reach nine points and win for either or both will take them to 10 points.

Afghanistan
Played: 7, Pts: 8, NRR: -0.330
Remaining matches: vs Aus, SA
Afghanistan find themselves in a tricky situation but if they manage two upsets it will surely take them to the semifinals. Among New Zealand, Pakistan, and them, only they have the chance to finish with 12 points, which will put the other two out of the semifinal race.

The problem with Afghanistan is their NRR (-0.330), which is the lowest among the three.

Meanwhile, their best chances of qualification lies if both Pakistan and New Zealand lose their final league matches and Afghanistan win either one of the two remaining matches.

Pakistan
Played: 8, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.036
Remaining matches: vs Eng
Having endured a tough road so far, Pakistan have produced a sensational turnaround and are still in the race to qualify for the semifinals. However, the road for Pakistan is a tricky one as they will need to depend on other results even if beat England in their final league match.

The best scenario for Pakistan is to win their match against England and hope Sri Lanka beat New Zealand, and Afghanistan lose their remaining two matches.

If New Zealand manage a win against Sri Lanka, Pakistan will have to outplay England by a bigger margin to have any chance on the basis of NRR.