BJP's bypoll blues and the pointer to a future

India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party suffered an embarrassing defeat on Monday in two of the three state assembly by-elections in the first test of popular mood after the Cockroach Janta Party's 36-day street protests over the issue of the NEET exam paper leak.

The by-elections were held on 30 August, five days after the CJP called off its protest that forced the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan as India's education minister. The results were declared on 3 August in the three constituencies spread across the western, eastern and heartland states of Bihar, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

The bypoll results have promptly set off a political buzz mainly for three reasons

First, the by-elections were the first set of poll battles after the 36-day agitation by the CJP over the NEET exam paper leak issue that had affected more than two million students.

Secondly, all three states are ruled by the BJP and all three constituencies are urban.

Thirdly, the biggest jolt for the saffron party came in the Bankipur constituency, its traditional bastion in Bihar. The by-election was necessitated by the resignation of BJP national president Nitin Nabin following his election as a member of the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Parliament.

BJP also failed to regain the Datia assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh from a Congress party battling internal dissensions there and retained the Manjalpur constituency in Gujarat with a much reduced margin compared with four years ago.

The biggest story of the by-elections was BJP's defeat in Bankipur

Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor earned his biggest electoral breakthrough since entering active politics and launching his fledgling Jan Suraaj Party.

It was Kishor's electoral debut in Bankipur and the victory is particularly significant because it came in a constituency long regarded as a BJP bastion for decades.

The win marks a dramatic turnaround for Kishor's political future. In the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, Jan Suraaj contested 238 seats but failed to win a single one. It came barely nine months after the BJP-led NDA swept the state polls, winning 202 out of 243 seats.

In the 2025 assembly election in Bankipur, current BJP president Nitin Nabin secured 98,299 votes, a 63.25% vote share, defeating the Rashtriya Janata Dal candidate by 51,936 votes.

While one bypoll alone cannot establish a statewide trend, the loss of Bankipur could raise questions about BJP's ability to retain its traditional urban support base.

Bankipur constituency had remained a BJP stronghold since 1995. The bypoll was necessitated after Nitin Nabin vacated the seat following his election to the Rajya Sabha.

The bypoll in Datia saw Congress overcome internal dissensions

The party's former Datia legislator Rajendra Bharti's disqualification after a bank fraud conviction necessitated the bypoll. Despite that baggage, Congress managed to romp home and hold on to the seat.

BJP retained Manjalpur but with a sharply reduced margin

BJP retained its stronghold of Manjalpur constituency in Gujarat's Vadodara district. However, the party saw a sharp decline in its winning margin from one lakh in the previous election there four years earlier to 30,000 on 30 August. The party should be more worried because Gujarat faces fresh assembly elections across the state next year.

Senior opposition leader Akhilesh Yadav, who heads the Samajwadi Party, attributed the by-election results to the anger among young people and students and said, "this is the start of change."

Yadav faces the task of preparing his party for fresh assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh next year as it seeks to regain power from the BJP.