Revenue falls Tk88,000cr short of FY26 target despite sharp year-end surge

Despite a sharp increase in revenue collection during the final two months of the fiscal year, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of its FY2025-26 target by around Tk88,000 crore.

Of the total shortfall, the Chattogram Custom House alone missed its target by nearly Tk21,000 crore.

According to the NBR's preliminary estimates, it collected Tk4,15,000 crore in FY26 against a target of Tk5,03,000 crore. Although revenue fell well below target, collections still grew by more than 12% compared with FY25.

NBR officials said the final figures are likely to be revised upward, which would slightly improve the growth rate and narrow the revenue gap.

Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, prime minster's finance and planning adviser, met NBR officials at its Agargaon headquarters yesterday (1 July), where the revenue figures were presented.

The meeting was attended by newly appointed NBR Chairman Ahsan Habib, former chairman Abdur Rahman Khan and other senior officials.

Abdur Rahman Khan told The Business Standard, "The final collection figure will be higher once all accounts are reconciled."

He said strong revenue growth at Chattogram Custom House in the final month of the fiscal year, along with the recovery of outstanding dues, helped narrow what could have been a much larger shortfall.

Weak development spending hit revenue

An NBR senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a large share of government revenue is generated through the implementation of public development projects.

Because implementation of the government's Annual Development Programme (ADP) remained significantly below target during FY2025-26, revenue from those activities also declined accordingly.

According to the planning ministry, only 48% of development projects had been implemented during the first 11 months (July-May) of FY2025-26 — the lowest execution rate in the past 16 years.

The official also said NBR field officers lacked confidence for various reasons and therefore refrained from conducting enforcement drives beyond routine activities.

He believes revenue collection could have been higher had those initiatives been undertaken.

Chattogram Customs misses target by Tk20,824cr despite double-digit growth

The Chattogram Custom House recorded 12.37% year-on-year growth in revenue collection in FY2025-26 but still missed its target by more than Tk20,824 crore, largely because outstanding customs dues from state-owned entities exceeded Tk25,000 crore.

Official data show that the country's largest customs station collected Tk81,471.37 crore against a target of Tk102,295 crore, leaving a shortfall of Tk20,823.63 crore.

FY27 target requires unprecedented growth

The BNP government has set an ambitious revenue target for FY2026-27, requiring revenue growth of nearly 45% over the previous year's collection – a level never achieved in the NBR's history.

Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told The Business Standard, "Based on the revenue collected this year, revenue would have to grow by more than 40% next year, which has never happened before. Such a level of growth is unrealistic."

"As a result, the new fiscal year is also likely to see a significant revenue shortfall," he said.

He added that the government would either have to revise the target downward, as it has done in previous years, or finance a larger deficit if spending rises.

"If the government relies more heavily on domestic borrowing, it could crowd out private-sector credit," he warned.

Mustafizur Rahman said that, since the budget introduced few new tax measures, the government would need to focus on reducing revenue leakages and accelerating digitalisation to improve tax collection. Even then, he said, a substantial gap would likely remain.