Vance, Rubio take different paths on Iran as 2028 speculation grows

Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio appear to be taking different approaches to President Donald Trump's national security agenda as both emerge as possible contenders for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.

Although the White House and State Department have dismissed any suggestion of a rift, the two senior officials have taken different positions, particularly on Iran and the broader Middle East.

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a longtime former senator with a strong focus on Latin America, has generally maintained a pro-Israel stance. Vance, a former Marine and Ohio senator who built his political profile by opposing foreign wars, has at times criticized Israel's military actions in Lebanon, arguing that they complicated US efforts to negotiate with Iran.

Vance has taken the lead in US negotiations with Iran, while Rubio has focused more on Lebanon. Last week, Rubio played a leading role in reaching a preliminary framework agreement related to Lebanon.

Dan Fried, a former assistant secretary of state and ambassador to Poland who is now with the Atlantic Council, said there appears to be a genuine difference between the two officials.

"The talk about differences is not idle speculation," Fried said. "There is definitely something to it."

The White House rejected any suggestion of internal divisions.

"Why is the legacy media obsessed with driving a wedge between Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio that does not exist?" White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. "

"There is one camp, President Trump's camp, and the entire administration is fully behind the president's efforts to ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott also dismissed reports of any disagreement, saying Rubio and the rest of the administration are fully aligned with Trump's policies.

According to Trump administration officials familiar with the matter, Rubio was skeptical that negotiations with Iran would produce an acceptable agreement and declined to lead the US delegation at the first ceasefire talks held in April in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Vance, seeing an opportunity to strengthen his foreign policy credentials, twice asked Trump to let him lead the negotiations before the president agreed, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss internal deliberations.

Vance led the US delegation in Pakistan and later represented Washington during talks in Switzerland after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. However, the ceasefire outlined in that agreement has remained fragile, with repeated exchanges of fire in recent days.

Ian Kelly, a retired US diplomat and former ambassador during Trump's first administration, said it is unusual for a vice president to lead such negotiations.

"It's rather unusual for the VP to be given the lead role in a negotiation, but it's quite possible that Rubio is happy to let him," Kelly said. "It's a pig in a poke. It's a loser job."

He added that both Vance and Rubio appear to have ambitions to succeed Trump, noting that Trump's recent comments suggesting he would blame Vance if the Iran talks fail could put the vice president under additional pressure.

Both Vance and Rubio have rejected suggestions of any disagreement.

"We're all focused on the jobs in front of us," Vance said. "I think the president loves to stir the pot a little bit and loves the entertainment of it."

He also praised Rubio, calling him "a great secretary of state" and "a very, very dear friend," while saying both are focused on serving the American people.

Rubio echoed that message during a visit to Bahrain last week.

"When it comes to foreign policy and national security, we have no drama. We have no games," Rubio told reporters.

He said members of the administration work closely together to carry out Trump's directives and have achieved positive results through collaboration.

Even so, Trump has continued to fuel speculation by asking supporters at campaign-style events whom they would prefer to succeed him and, at one point, suggested that Vance and Rubio could form an unbeatable future ticket.

Despite their public unity, analysts say the two men have different foreign policy outlooks.

Fried said Rubio largely follows the traditional Republican foreign policy approach associated with former President Ronald Reagan, while Vance has been more skeptical of military involvement overseas.

"Rubio speaks within the rubric of the Ronald Reagan construct of the free world and its importance," Fried said. "Vance is not interested in the free-world construct. He speaks in the language of not wanting to fight what he believes are abstractions."

Fried warned that current US policy could ultimately leave Iran in a stronger strategic position despite its recent setbacks.

Meanwhile, Rubio's aides note that he has repeatedly said he would support Vance if the vice president decides to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

At the same time, Rubio has strengthened his influence within the administration by reshaping the National Security Council.

Several close allies have recently been appointed to key White House positions, including former State Department counselor Mike Needham as deputy national security adviser, Jeremy Lewin, who previously oversaw the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development, as a deputy for the Western Hemisphere, and Dylan Johnson, who continues to serve in dual roles as head of National Security Council communications and assistant secretary of state for public affairs.