Asian markets mixed in choppy trade as AI doubts, Iran tensions cloud outlook

Highlights:

• South Korea's KOSPI falls as much as 3.4%
• Indonesian stocks set for worst June since 2015
• Iran and US agree to halt attacks and renew talks

Asian markets were choppy on Monday as investors weighed AI-driven growth against rising cost pressures, while keeping an eye on a fragile US-Iran ceasefire that kept oil prices elevated and the dollar near a one-year high.

The MSCI EM Asia gauge was largely unchanged, hovering near two-week lows, while an index tracking ASEAN stocks advanced 0.4% after hitting a two-week low in the previous session.

Equity markets moved unevenly, reflecting investor caution over stretched artificial intelligence-driven rallies, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan, and lingering uncertainty about how rising costs could filter through the sector.

South Korea's KOSPI, which lost 7% last week, shed as much as 3.4% earlier in the session on Monday, although it pared some losses to trade around 2% lower.

Stocks in Taiwan gained as much as 2.1%. The index has gained 56% so far this year and is the second-best-performing market in the region behind the KOSPI's 97% rally.

"The narrative at the moment is focused on artificial intelligence return on investment and whether cost pressures are starting to cascade down the supply chain," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"Last week's announcement by Apple ... shows that the cost pressures caused by the demand for raw materials for the AI build-out are about to hit consumers directly."

In Southeast Asia, Thailand's stock index rose more than 1%, driven mainly by electronic products manufacturer Delta Electronics Thailand, which rose around 5% on Monday and 84% this year.

Stocks in Malaysia shed 0.5%. Equities in Jakarta slid 0.4% and were set for their worst June since 2015. The index was also tracking its sixth consecutive month of declines, with losses of about 4.5% in June.

Globally, the US and Iran traded fresh strikes over the weekend before they agreed to stop their tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving investors nervous about a fragile ceasefire.

The dollar index was steady at around 101.4, supported by lingering geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the rising prospects of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year.

"Across EM Asia, regional currencies are broadly stable, with the lack of a sustained spike in oil prices easing pressure on net energy importers such as India, Thailand and the Philippines," said Lukman Leong, an analyst at Doo Financial Futures, a brokerage.

"The relatively muted market reaction also reflects expectations that any Middle East conflict will remain contained, allowing investors to refocus on domestic fundamentals."

The Malaysian ringgit led gains, rising over 0.6% to 4.063 per dollar, touching its highest point in nearly two weeks. The Indonesian rupiah advanced to 17,860 per dollar.

The Philippine peso and the Thai baht were largely flat. The South Korean won fell 0.6%, while the Taiwanese dollar inched 0.2% lower.

In Venezuela, the death toll from last week's twin earthquakes neared 1,500 people as foreign rescue teams poured into La Guaira, the hardest-hit state in a country that has long been mired in a deep political and economic crisis.

Elsewhere, the Bolivian government said on Friday that the country would adopt a flexible exchange-rate system, effectively devaluing its currency by ending a 15-year dollar peg, in a major policy shift aimed at restoring economic stability.