Bangladesh’s oil import bill could cost additional 0.8% of GDP amid Hormuz disruptions: Unctad

Bangladesh could face billions of dollars in additional fuel import costs if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz trigger a sustained surge in global oil prices, according to a new assessment by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).

In its latest Strait of Hormuz monitor released on 2 June, Unctad estimated that a 50% increase in oil prices would raise Bangladesh's annual oil import bill by the equivalent of 0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), assuming import volumes remain unchanged from 2024 levels.

Based on FY25 GDP data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the increase would amount to approximately $3.65 billion.

The warning comes amid heightened tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies. Unctad noted that average crude oil prices have risen by more than 40% since the latest escalation in late February, while gasoline prices have increased by over 50%.

According to the agency, vulnerable oil-importing economies are likely to face higher import costs, inflationary pressures and mounting fiscal challenges if elevated energy prices persist.

Bangladesh was among a group of least developed countries projected to see oil import costs rise by more than 0.5% of GDP following an oil price shock. However, it was not identified as one of the countries most dependent on direct oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Unctad analysed 75 vulnerable economies and found that 65 are net oil importers, with imports heavily concentrated in refined petroleum products. Together, these countries are home to nearly one billion people, more than 30% of whom live on less than $3 a day.

The agency estimated that, based on current import levels, a sustained 50% increase in refined oil prices could raise the collective annual net oil import bill of these economies by more than $20.4 billion.

Several countries could face particularly severe impacts, with additional oil import costs exceeding 5% of GDP. Mauritania would see the largest increase at 7.3% of GDP, followed by the Gambia (6.3%), Vanuatu (5.8%), the Maldives (5.2%) and Burkina Faso (5%).

Unctad warned that such increases could force difficult trade-offs between financing essential imports and investing in development priorities.