Bangladesh’s fatal lightning strikes are no longer just a ‘natural’ hazard

There was a time when lightning came with storms, they were loud but rarely lethal. Death from lightning strikes was a less recurring phenomenon, but today, it routinely takes lives. 

In fact, Bangladesh declared it as a natural disaster in 2016 after more than 200 people died in the month of May alone, including 82 people on a single day.

Infograph: TBS

This year, Bangladesh has already reported at least 74 deaths, with 14 occurring on 26 April alone. The deaths were reported from several districts after sudden storms were accompanied by heavy rain and intense lightning.

However, before 2015, lightning-related deaths rarely exceeded 100 per year, while the average death toll was around 30 in the 1990s. Now, the 300+ annual death toll has become the "new normal". Data from the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) shows at least 3,835 deaths between 2015 and 2025. 

A growing body of climate research suggests that a warming atmosphere, increasingly primed for electrical storms, combined with pollution and rising human exposure are making lightning both more frequent and deadlier.

The usual suspect

At its core, there's the usual suspect — climate change and global warming. Research shows that lightning frequency increases by roughly 12% for every 1°C rise in global temperature.

In Bangladesh, this global principle is taking on a distinctly local intensity. The key variable here is Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), the atmospheric "fuel tank" for thunderstorms. Regional modeling suggests that CAPE over Bangladesh could rise by as much as 45% during the pre-monsoon season — already the most dangerous window for lightning fatalities. The implication is not simply more storms, but more violent ones.

A recent study titled 'Role of Pollutants on the Bimodal Lightning Distribution in Bangladesh', analysing six years of lightning and air quality data (2015–2020) finds a strong link between increased lightning activity and higher concentrations of dust and sulphate particles — especially during the pre-monsoon months of April and May, when strikes peak.

Ashraf Dewan, co-author of the study and director of research at the School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Curtin University in Australia, explains that these pollutants help create conditions favourable for lightning by interacting with atmospheric factors such as CAPE, altering cloud formation and making it easier for electrical charge to build up. 

During peak season, dust levels are found to be 88% higher and sulfate levels 51% higher than in the secondary lightning period later in the year.

However, the relationship is not straightforward. Dewan notes a "threshold effect", where lightning intensifies when already high local pollution combines with incoming transboundary pollutants. The study also highlights a more complex dynamic, with some finer particles, such as PM2.5, potentially suppressing lightning under certain conditions.

If warming provides the energy, pollution shapes the outcome. Dust, sulfate (SO₄), and ozone (O₃) particles act as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei, altering the microphysics of storm clouds. They facilitate the formation of ice crystals and supercooled droplets, enhancing the internal collisions that separate electrical charges.

Exposure and inequality

While science explains the hazard, it does not fully explain the deaths. 

Lightning in Bangladesh is highly selective in whom it kills; it overwhelmingly targets those who cannot avoid exposure.

Roughly 80% of victims are farmers and fishers; people whose livelihoods depend on being outdoors during the very hours when thunderstorms are most likely to form. Fatalities peak during the Boro harvest season, when agricultural activity intensifies and risk becomes unavoidable.

"We didn't notice any significant shift. Rather, people's exposure has increased manifold, which is why fatalities are high," said Ashraf Dewan. That distinction is critical. The atmosphere may be intensifying, but the death toll is being driven by human vulnerability layered onto that intensity. 

And this is preventable. As Mostafa Kamal Palash, a weather and climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, pointed out, "The core failure lies in communication. Farmers and agricultural workers who make up the majority of victims do not need vague, day-long warnings. Being told that 'lightning may occur today' is neither practical nor actionable.

"Instead, what is required is precise, time-bound information. For instance, if workers in a specific upazila were informed by 8am that a lightning storm would pass between 9am and 10am, they could temporarily suspend work and resume once the risk subsides," he added. 

The 'last mile' failure

Bangladesh's recognition of lightning as a national disaster in 2016 was an institutional landmark. Forecasting capacity has improved, and early warning systems have been introduced. Yet a persistent gap remains between detection and action.

Muhammad Awfa Islam, assistant professor at the Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies (IDMVS), University of Dhaka, said, "Policy attention has not translated into meaningful action. Getting the information to the people who are at most risk within the shortest possible time is a challenge, and a second challenge is to get them to act on the information." 

At the community level, this is often described as a "last mile" failure. Surveys indicate that over 77% of residents in high-risk areas are uncertain about warning lead times, frequently finding alerts too vague or too late to act upon. But there is also a governance dimension. 

According to Dewan, the challenge is less about technical feasibility and more about implementation. 

"It is not difficult at all, but we do face limitations in terms of the political will to implement lightning forecasting. I am confident that if we move forward with such forecasting, we could save many lives and develop targeted measures."

And the project to plant trees to prevent lightning strikes was full of corruption. 

As Mostafa Kamal Palash recalled, "One such initiative, funded by the World Bank, sought to reduce lightning fatalities by planting palm trees nationwide, based on the idea that they could act as natural lightning conductors. The project initially aimed to plant around eight million trees. However, within a few years, there was little evidence of their existence on the ground. In some instances, officials claimed the saplings had been destroyed by goats."

Technologically, Bangladesh still relies heavily on satellite-based detection systems, which lack the spatial precision required for site-specific alerts. The absence of a comprehensive ground-based lightning detection network limits the ability to issue hyper-local warnings in real time.

Is urbanisation making cities electrically volatile? 

Pollution is only one part of the equation. The way cities are built also matters.

"Densely populated and unplanned urban areas like Dhaka are more susceptible to extreme weather events, including localised lightning activity," says climate researcher Awfa Islam. 

One key factor is the urban heat island effect — where concrete, asphalt and a lack of vegetation cause cities to retain heat, raising local temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas. 

Islam said, "Air pollution and climate change contribute to urban heat island effects and atmospheric instability, which can increase the likelihood of lightning activity." 

This excess heat feeds atmospheric instability, increasing the likelihood of sudden convective events — the same vertical air movements that drive thunderstorms. In cities with limited green space and poor planning, this instability can intensify rapidly, creating pockets of heightened risk.

The consequences are not limited to lightning strikes themselves. "This also raises secondary risks, such as urban fires triggered by lightning," Islam added. 

The way forward

Experts argue that Bangladesh does not lack awareness of the problem — it lacks integration, coordination, and effective communication.

"Lightning needs to be integrated more explicitly into national disaster policy frameworks, with dedicated planning and resource allocation," said Awfa Islam. 

One proposed solution is institutional. "A specialised, multi-agency task force, bringing together government bodies, autonomous institutions, NGOs, and volunteer groups can significantly improve coordination and response time," Islam noted. Such a platform could streamline forecasting, dissemination, and emergency response, ensuring that warnings translate into action on the ground.

Mostafa Kamal Palash argues that the Bangladesh Meteorological Department must undergo significant modernisation — not just technologically, but linguistically and socially. 

"Forecasts are often delivered in technical or formal language that many people do not understand. Weather information must be communicated in the language people actually use," he said, including local dialects and context-specific explanations.

More importantly, forecasts must be customised. The current system, he suggests, follows a "one-size-fits-all" model — issuing generic warnings that do not account for differences in occupation, geography, or risk exposure. "A farmer, a fisherman in the Bay of Bengal, and a resident of Dhaka do not need the same forecast," he explained. Each group requires tailored, actionable information relevant to their daily activities.

From a long-term ecological perspective, Ashraf Dewan sees merit in the idea, but with clear caveats. 

"This could be a long-term measure, since palm trees take time to grow," he said. In the short to medium term, he points to a more immediate solution, "We can still move forward with an early warning system that uses multi-dimensional data to alert people at least three hours before an event via SMS.