How banks’ strong profits from investing in treasury bills raise sustainability concerns

Highlights:

• Banks earned record profits mainly from government treasury securities
• Private sector lending fell to lowest level in 21 years
• BRAC Bank posted highest profit, rising 57% in 2025
• Government borrowing from banks increased sharply during economic uncertainty
• Economists warn treasury dependence may weaken long-term economic growth
• Weak business confidence reduced demand for corporate loans and investment

The country's banking sector posted robust profits in 2025 despite a sharp slowdown in private sector lending as higher returns from government treasury securities increasingly replaced traditional business lending as the sector's main source of income, raising concerns among economists and bankers over the sustainability of the model.

Several private banks, including BRAC Bank, City Bank, Midland Bank, Prime Bank and Jamuna Bank, reported strong profit growth during the year, driven largely by investments in government securities that offered comparatively risk-free returns amid weak demand for loans from businesses.

According to published financial statements compiled by financial advisory firm Lion City Advisory, several banks posted strong earnings, with BRAC Bank and City Bank both crossing the Tk1,000 crore mark in 2025.

BRAC Bank recorded the highest net profit in the sector, posting Tk2,250 crore in 2025, up 57% from Tk1,432 crore a year earlier. The bank's investment in government treasury securities rose to Tk40,647 crore in 2025 from Tk28,671 crore a year ago, accounting for 31% of its total assets. Treasury investments contributed 32% of its total income during the year.

City Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Tk1,324 crore in 2025, marking a 31% increase from Tk1,014 crore in 2024. The bank's treasury investment rose sharply to Tk19,125 crore from Tk12,487 crore a year earlier, representing 23% of its total assets. Treasury operations accounted for 35% of the bank's income in 2025.

Jamuna Bank invested Tk19,402 crore in treasury securities, accounting for 45% of its total assets, up from Tk12,411 crore in 2024. The bank generated 23% of its operating income from lending to the government.

Midland Bank increased its treasury investment to Tk3,273 crore in 2025 from Tk2,127 crore a year earlier, with government securities accounting for 26% of its total assets. Treasury income contributed 37% of the bank's total income during the year.

NCC Bank also significantly expanded its exposure to government securities. Its investment in treasury securities rose to Tk9,100 crore at the end of December 2025 from Tk6,591 crore a year earlier. The bank earned Tk609 crore from treasury operations in 2025, accounting for 21% of its operating income.

Shift towards government securities

Bankers say the combination of high lending rates, weak business confidence and global uncertainty has discouraged private sector borrowing and pushed banks towards safer investment instruments.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, private sector credit growth fell to 6.03% in February, the lowest level in 21 years. The figure declined from 6.1% in December and remained far below the 10.13% growth recorded in July 2024.

Although credit growth briefly rose to 6.58% in November, analysts attributed the increase to loan restructuring ahead of the 12 February national election rather than fresh investment in productive sectors.

At the same time, government borrowing from the banking system accelerated sharply.

Data from Bangladesh Bank, the Centre for Policy Dialogue and the Asian Development Bank show that total banking sector deposits rose to Tk21 lakh crore at the end of December 2025 from Tk18.83 lakh crore a year earlier, representing an increase of 11.57%.

Meanwhile, banks' investment in treasury bills and bonds surged more than 40% year-on-year to Tk5.38 lakh crore from Tk3.82 lakh crore.

Total banking sector assets stood at Tk28.09 lakh crore at the end of 2025, growing by only 6% compared with the previous year.

Ershad Hossain, director at Putnam Capital Advisory Pte Ltd, said banks were increasingly moving away from lending to businesses and relying heavily on government securities offering yields of around 10% to 12%.

"Private sector credit growth has dropped to 6.03%, a 21-year low, while government borrowing from banks has surged by 24%, exceeding the central bank's ceiling," he said.

"This shift has fundamentally altered banks' income structure, with the majority of operating income now coming from government securities rather than traditional lending."

He also warned that the trend is already affecting the broader economy. Imports of capital machinery, a key indicator of industrial investment, fell 10.43% between July 2025 and March 2026, while banks now hold 67% of public debt. He added that the sector's capital adequacy ratio had dropped to 1.53%, far below the minimum regulatory requirement of 12.5%.

Concerns over crowding out

Economists have warned that excessive government borrowing from banks could crowd out private sector investment by reducing the availability of credit for businesses.

They say prolonged dependence on treasury income could weaken industrial expansion, slow job creation and reduce long-term economic growth.

City Bank Managing Director Mashrur Arefin described the rise in treasury investments at the expense of loan growth as "a major negative signal" for the economy.

"Over the past year, there has been virtually no alternative to making profits from treasury bills because businesses are not borrowing," he said.

According to him, political uncertainty, external economic risks and weak investor confidence have discouraged businesses from opening large letters of credit or importing capital machinery. Even borrowers with approved credit limits are not fully utilising them.

He said banks with strong public confidence and stable deposit inflows were placing increasing amounts of liquidity into government securities because demand for corporate loans remained weak.

Mashrur warned that the trend was not sustainable in the long run.

"If credit growth does not recover, economic growth will eventually slow and banks themselves will suffer," he said.

He added that City Bank is shifting focus towards small loans, digital nano-credit and microfinance through platforms such as bKash to offset weaker corporate lending demand.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, described the growing dependence on treasury income as an "underlying weakness" in the banking sector.

He said a sustainable banking model should rely primarily on financing productive private sector activities and supporting entrepreneurship rather than depending on government borrowing.

"Investment in government securities may be safe, but it does not directly contribute to investment growth or employment generation," he said.

According to him, businesses remain reluctant to borrow because of geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty and an unfavourable business environment.

He said improving logistics support, introducing effective single-window services and reducing the cost of doing business would be necessary to revive private investment and encourage banks to increase lending to productive sectors again.

Abdullah Al Faisal, director at Lion City Advisory Limited, said the growing reliance on treasury income reflected rising risk aversion among banks and weakening credit demand.

"Such income is non-core and highly sensitive to interest rates, making bank profitability less sustainable over time," he said.

Economists and bankers alike caution that while treasury investments currently offer attractive and secure returns with virtually no default risk, the continued shift away from productive lending could weaken the banking sector's long-term role in supporting economic growth.