GDP growth slows to 2.22% in Q3 of FY26
The latest quarterly national accounts show broad-based weakness across the economy during the January-March period.
Highlights:
- Q3 GDP growth falls to 2.22%
- Industrial output contracts during January-March quarter
- Agriculture and services record slower expansion
- Current-price GDP rises to Tk15.39 trillion
- BBS releases third-quarter GDP estimates
Bangladesh's GDP growth slowed to 2.22% year-on-year at constant prices in the third quarter (January-March) of FY2025-26, down from 4.53% in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released the third-quarter GDP estimates for FY26 today (20 July).
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According to the quarterly data, the economy grew by 4.96% and 3.03% in the first and second quarters of FY26, respectively, compared with 3.91% and 3.53% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.
At current prices, the size of the economy reached Tk15.391 trillion in the third quarter of FY2025-26, up from Tk14.192 trillion in the same quarter a year earlier.
BBS data show that growth slowed across all three major sectors – agriculture, industry and services – compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Agricultural sector growth declined to 1.74% in the third quarter, from 4.61% a year earlier. The sector had grown by 2.11% and 3.68% in the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, compared with -0.12% and 1.90% in the corresponding quarters of FY2024-25.
The industrial sector recorded negative growth of 0.28% in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from 3.33% growth in the same period last year. However, the sector had expanded by 6.82% and 1.27% in the first and second quarters of FY2025-26, compared with 4.80% and 5.78% in the corresponding quarters of the previous fiscal year.
Growth in the services sector slowed to 3.52% in the third quarter from 7.32% a year earlier. During the first and second quarters of the current fiscal year, the sector grew by 4.51% and 4.45%, compared with 4.49% and 5.84%, respectively, in the same quarters of FY2024-25.
Economists said the slowdown across all three major sectors in the third quarter, particularly the contraction in industry, signals growing concerns for the economy.
Dr Sayema Haque Bidisha, professor of economics at the University of Dhaka, said it would be inappropriate to draw policy conclusions based on GDP growth data from a single quarter.
"Quarterly growth figures are heavily influenced by the base effect – the level of growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. If growth was unusually high or low in the base period, the current year's growth rate may appear disproportionately different. Therefore, one quarter's data alone should not be used to assess the overall state of the economy," she said.
Bidisha added that the broader economic context of the January-March quarter should also be considered.
"National elections were held during this period, which may have affected normal economic activity and, consequently, GDP growth," she said.
However, she identified the negative growth in the industrial sector as the most worrying development.
"This is a warning signal for the economy and calls for prompt policy intervention. While very high agricultural growth is not expected, post-election changes in supply chains may also have had some impact," she said.
According to Bidisha, the performance of the industrial sector in the April-June quarter will be crucial. "If growth remains weak, major policy and strategic measures will be needed to revive the sector, as industrial growth is directly linked to employment, industrialisation and the country's overall economic expansion," she said.
