Govt to launch AI system to predict supply crises, stabilise essential goods market

The government plans to introduce an artificial intelligence (AI)-based data analysis system to ensure a steady supply of essential goods and identify possible market disruptions in advance, Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir said.

According to a press release, the proposed system will analyse 10 years of market data, production records, import-export information and global market trends to help the government make faster decisions on managing sensitive products.

The minister made the remarks today (28 July) at a meeting on e-commerce implementation at the Ministry of Commerce conference room. Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan chaired the meeting.

Khandaker said several ministries and agencies currently work separately on essential products in agriculture, food and industry sectors. The government now needs a coordinated system that can analyse which goods are produced locally, which depend on imports and which require a mix of domestic production and imports.

He said supply disruptions often lead to price increases. The government's priority is to prevent market instability by ensuring uninterrupted supply rather than taking action only after prices rise.

"Whether the government will reduce prices through subsidies when the prices of any product rise is a separate issue. Our main goal is to ensure that market instability does not occur due to a disruption in supply," he said.

The minister said products such as lentils and onions require continuous monitoring by considering local production, seasonal shortages, international market conditions and the production capacity of exporting countries.

He explained that if the country expects lower lentil production in a particular year, authorities should start preparations before the harvesting season. They must also assess production levels and export capacity in supplier countries to decide the best time and source for imports.

The AI platform will help identify when shortages may occur, which countries could provide better import options, and when global markets may offer favourable prices, Khandaker said.

He added that government agencies currently spend significant time arranging meetings between ministries to collect and analyse information. An AI-based system could complete the same analysis within minutes and provide possible future scenarios.

The minister said the Ministry of Commerce will not operate the initiative alone. It will work with relevant ministries and agencies, including the agriculture and food ministries. All organisations involved will have access to necessary data.

He stressed that reliable data sources will determine the effectiveness of the AI system. The government will use both domestic information and data from international open-source and subscription-based platforms to build a comprehensive database.

Khandaker said developing the system will take time and require several stages. Once completed, it will help the government make faster and more accurate decisions based on reliable information.

"Creating the ability to make quick and accurate decisions based on reliable information is the main objective of this initiative. It will strengthen the country's market management system and protect consumer interests," he said.

The meeting also discussed the development of the e-commerce sector, technology-driven market management and future action plans.